Yes. another topic on it.. Ladder Predictor/Race for final 8

[paddyl90]

Just thought this needed its own thread. Essendon's draw against competitors for final eight. I'm not getting carried away by any means but would be fun to keep and eye on I think and analyse as the weeks go on, thats if we keep winning of course..

So here are the draws

Essendon

14-Fremantle (S)
15-Brisbane (TD)
16-Richmond (MCG)
17-Collingwood (MCG)
18-Melbourne (MCG)
19-WCE (S)
20-Adelaide (TD)
21-WB (TD)
22- St Kilda (TD)

Kangaroos

14- St Kilda (TD)
15- Port (AAMI)
16- Collingwood (TD)
17- Melbourne (MCG)
18- Brisbane (Carrara)
19- WB (TD)
20- Carlton (TD)
21- Geelong (SS)
22- Port (MCG)

Carlton

14- Richmond (MCG)
15- St Kilda (MCG)
16- Sydney (TD)
17- WB (TD)
18- Adelaide (AAMI)
19- Port (TD)
20- North (MCG)
21- Brisbane (G)
22- Hawthorn (TD)

Richmond

14- Carlton (MCG)
15- WCE (S)
16- Essendon (MCG)
17- Brisbane (TD)
18- Geelong (TD)
19- Adelaide (AAMI)
20- Hawthorn (MCG)
21- Fremantle (MCG)
22- Melbourne (MCG)

Collingwood

14- Sydney (ANZ)
15- Adelaide (MCG)
16- North (TD)
17- Essendon (MCG)
18- Hawthorn (MCG)
19- St Kilda (MCG)
20- Port (AAMI)
21- Sydney (TD)
22- Freo (S)

Overall, besides ours the other face difficulties with tough games ahead. especially right at the end of the season. good to see collingwood go west to Perth and Adelaide within 3 weeks for once. Their form is slipping I think although they should stay around the 7-10 mark. Kangaroos are I think our main contenders, if we can get insight that is, as they can pull a rabbit out of the hat a lot. Carlton and Richmond IMO will faulter and slip down. So the chance is there to be taken.

Let me stress that this is only for fun its designed just to keep this season interesting. I would love to finish 9th, it wouldn't bother me whatsoever. But lets enjoy it anyway, there's few more wins ahead i think. Freo and WCE will be the key matches as as well as Adelaide and Collingwood. Bulldogs most likely will beat us though.

Anyway here's a link to a predictor to play around with.

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php
Hopefully as the weeks progress we can watch this thread and discuss the race towards the final.

Let the race begin!

Round 13 Ladder:

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 13 12 1 0 1508 1051 48 143.5
2 W Bulldogs 13 11 1 1 1582 1206 46 131.2
3 Hawthorn 13 11 2 0 1442 1144 44 126.0
4 Sydney 13 9 3 1 1306 957 38 136.5
5 Adelaide 13 8 5 0 1276 1097 32 116.3
6 Bris Lions 13 8 5 0 1342 1258 32 106.7
7 Collingwood 13 7 6 0 1467 1245 28 117.8
8 Nth Melb 13 6 6 1 1241 1310 26 94.7
9 St Kilda 13 6 7 0 1180 1230 24 95.9
10 Carlton 13 6 7 0 1263 1359 24 92.9
11 Richmond 13 5 7 1 1316 1420 22 92.7
12 Port Adel 13 4 9 0 1259 1326 16 94.9
13 Essendon 13 4 9 0 1204 1563 16 77.0
14 Fremantle 13 2 11 0 1139 1271 8 89.6
15 West Coast 13 2 11 0 988 1463 8 67.5
16 Melbourne 13 1 12 0 1014 1627 4 62.3

[bomberdonnie]

Richmond will finish 9th

[Malky]

The teams to make the 8 have made it - there won't be any changes to the teams who are currently in there.

The only things that will change are the orders:
Top 3 will be made up of Geelong Hawthorn Bulldogs
4th spot up for grabs between Sydney and Brisbane
6-8 to be battled out between Adelaide Corringwood and Norf

[tom9779]

The teams to make the 8 have made it - there won't be any changes to the teams who are currently in there.

The only things that will change are the orders:
Top 3 will be made up of Geelong Hawthorn Bulldogs
4th spot up for grabs between Sydney and Brisbane
6-8 to be battled out between Adelaide Corringwood and Norf

true altho richmond and the aints might have a run at 8th. the cows might be one team to drop a bit. not convinced of their credentials yet.
port might find their form and stir a couple of upsets, ditto freo.

sydney to go down def, even tho their form is white hot. they have still to play: dogs, hawks and cats. and they will play the pies without goodes. and the pies go pretty good against em.

dees will keep the spoon. we might creep up the ladder a little.

[billyduckworth]

Not convinced about Norf for 8th. Their draw is pretty hard from here on.
Until the last 2 weeks, I thought Port could sneek in there, but they've really stuffed themselves up now, losing to both Carlton and Richmond. Saints are still some chance to make 8th. Hopefully not Carlton.

[Chris]

Might be my hatred for everything black and white, but I think the big downhill rider is going to be Collingwood. With Rocca gone for the season, what was a difficult forward line to contain with two man mountains in rocca and cloak has got that little bit easier.

With Sydney twice, Adelaid and the Hawks to come (all of which I think they will lose), our game vs the maggies could be crucial to them making the 8. Whether we make the 8 or not (and most likley not despite our easy draw to come) I will take great satisfaction if we can knock collingwood out of the 8 just as we did carlscum.

[bomberflyer]

Geelong Minor Premier and Premier.

The rest are making up numbers.

[Sismis]

I love these things, tipping based on current form i got.

1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2521 1838 84 137.1
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2567 2021 78 127.0
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2423 1963 76 123.4
4 Sydney 22 14 7 1 2221 1842 58 120.5
7 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2406 2106 56 114.2
6 Bris Lions 22 14 8 0 2309 2091 56 110.4
9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2077 2133 48 97.3
8 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2144 2207 46 97.1

5 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2155 2018 44 106.7
11 Richmond 22 8 13 1 2183 2353 34 92.7
10 Carlton 22 8 14 0 2112 2310 32 91.4
12 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2138 2247 24 95.1
13 Essendon 22 6 16 0 2053 2514 24 81.6
15 West Coast 22 6 16 0 1845 2406 24 76.6
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 2006 2204 16 91.0
16 Melbourne 22 1 21 0 1767 2674 4 66.0

[Boyler_Room]

I love these things, tipping based on current form i got.

1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2521 1838 84 137.1
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2567 2021 78 127.0
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2423 1963 76 123.4
4 Sydney 22 14 7 1 2221 1842 58 120.5
7 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2406 2106 56 114.2
6 Bris Lions 22 14 8 0 2309 2091 56 110.4
9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2077 2133 48 97.3
8 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2144 2207 46 97.1

5 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2155 2018 44 106.7
11 Richmond 22 8 13 1 2183 2353 34 92.7
10 Carlton 22 8 14 0 2112 2310 32 91.4
12 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2138 2247 24 95.1
13 Essendon 22 6 16 0 2053 2514 24 81.6
15 West Coast 22 6 16 0 1845 2406 24 76.6
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 2006 2204 16 91.0
16 Melbourne 22 1 21 0 1767 2674 4 66.0

Two more wins for the season, Sismis? I would have hoped for a couple more than that. Who did you tip that we'd beat?

[Royza]

Code: Select all

               W   L    D Pt
W Bulldogs    20   1    1 82
Hawthorn      20   2    0 80
Geelong       18   4    0 72	
Sydney        16   5    1 66
Nth Melb      12   9    1 50
Adelaide      12   10   0 48
Bris Lions    12   10   0 48
Essendon      12   10   0 48 
============================
St Kilda      11   11   0 44
Richmond      10   11   1 42
Collingwood   10   12   0 40
Carlton       7    15   0 28
Port Adel     6    16   0 24
Fremantle     4    18   0 16
West Coast    2    20   0 8
Melbourne     2    20   0 8

[Sismis]

I love these things, tipping based on current form i got.

1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2521 1838 84 137.1
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2567 2021 78 127.0
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2423 1963 76 123.4
4 Sydney 22 14 7 1 2221 1842 58 120.5
7 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2406 2106 56 114.2
6 Bris Lions 22 14 8 0 2309 2091 56 110.4
9 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2077 2133 48 97.3
8 Nth Melb 22 11 10 1 2144 2207 46 97.1

5 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2155 2018 44 106.7
11 Richmond 22 8 13 1 2183 2353 34 92.7
10 Carlton 22 8 14 0 2112 2310 32 91.4
12 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2138 2247 24 95.1
13 Essendon 22 6 16 0 2053 2514 24 81.6
15 West Coast 22 6 16 0 1845 2406 24 76.6
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 2006 2204 16 91.0
16 Melbourne 22 1 21 0 1767 2674 4 66.0

Two more wins for the season, Sismis? I would have hoped for a couple more than that. Who did you tip that we'd beat?

This was based on a quick assessment based on current ladder position with consideration for interstate games. This has us beating Melbourne and Adelaide. I'm hoping we'll win at least four more this year with Freo, Tigers, West Coast and Saints all winnable games.