Now that the main draft has concluded, and we pretty much know what cattle we'll have on the field next year, I'm interested to know where people think we'll finish on the ladder and, consequently, whether we are any chance of making finals.
Also, if people have us finishing, say, 10th, I'd be interested to know what teams you think will finish below us.
Ladder position for 2007
-
jimmyc1985
- Champion of Essendon
- Posts: 5869
- Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:33 pm
- Location: Position A
Well, I'm much more optimistic about 2007 now than what I was a week ago, as I feel we've drafted well and I also feel as though the acquisition of Michael, providing his head is in the right place, will be a positive. That being said, I still think our chances of making the 8 are less than 50-50.
Of the teams that finished between 9th and 14th last year, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn all have legitimate expectations of pushing for the top 8 next year, which makes it harder for us. However, i'd be disappointed if we couldn't outperform the Kangaroos and Brisbane next year, as I reckon those two teams are in for a tough couple of years. Naturally, I'd also be frustrated if we couldn't stay ahead of Carlton.
Of the teams in this year's top 8 that might slide next year, Collingwood and Melbourne look the two most likely clubs in my opinion to slide out of the 8. Whether they will slide far enough so that we can overtake them is a moot point, and my answer is that we probably won't, at least not in the space of one year.
All in all, I'd give us perhaps a 1/3 chance of making next year's finals, with the realisation that in spite of our apparent strong drafting and the acquisition of Michael (as well as having Lloyd as essentially a new reruit), we've still got at least one more down year to come. I think we'll finish 11th, and the teams we will beat home are (in no particular order): Carlton, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Richmond and Port.
Of the teams that finished between 9th and 14th last year, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn all have legitimate expectations of pushing for the top 8 next year, which makes it harder for us. However, i'd be disappointed if we couldn't outperform the Kangaroos and Brisbane next year, as I reckon those two teams are in for a tough couple of years. Naturally, I'd also be frustrated if we couldn't stay ahead of Carlton.
Of the teams in this year's top 8 that might slide next year, Collingwood and Melbourne look the two most likely clubs in my opinion to slide out of the 8. Whether they will slide far enough so that we can overtake them is a moot point, and my answer is that we probably won't, at least not in the space of one year.
All in all, I'd give us perhaps a 1/3 chance of making next year's finals, with the realisation that in spite of our apparent strong drafting and the acquisition of Michael (as well as having Lloyd as essentially a new reruit), we've still got at least one more down year to come. I think we'll finish 11th, and the teams we will beat home are (in no particular order): Carlton, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Richmond and Port.
The main factor that will alter my outlook on where we will finish, is if Sheedy has the balls to play the kids.
For two years we have screemed for him to try and play some of the younger guys for nothing but experience, when you look at where we were sitting on the ladder for the last couple of years.
Will we still see these guys wating away in the twos for 12 months while they find their feet??
Obviously, Sheedy has more hanging on this year personally than any other for the last decade (Sydney job offer) where he has to perform. Seeing some half decent youngster let go, while senior players were putting in mediocre(sp??) efforts got up my goat last year.
In this last year of James Hird, some of these new guys will have to get something out of his leadership before he retires and maybe never frequents the club again.......during their careers.
Training, match conditions, circle work never has the same feeling as a full home and home game - 10 games with James will equal a lifetime of experience to these kids........so we can't let it go to waste.
2 games does not constitue giving the kids a go.
To get back on topic, if we play roughly the same 18 as round 1 last year -(including Hird and Lloyd) I think that we would finish no higher than 10th.
For two years we have screemed for him to try and play some of the younger guys for nothing but experience, when you look at where we were sitting on the ladder for the last couple of years.
Will we still see these guys wating away in the twos for 12 months while they find their feet??
Obviously, Sheedy has more hanging on this year personally than any other for the last decade (Sydney job offer) where he has to perform. Seeing some half decent youngster let go, while senior players were putting in mediocre(sp??) efforts got up my goat last year.
In this last year of James Hird, some of these new guys will have to get something out of his leadership before he retires and maybe never frequents the club again.......during their careers.
Training, match conditions, circle work never has the same feeling as a full home and home game - 10 games with James will equal a lifetime of experience to these kids........so we can't let it go to waste.
2 games does not constitue giving the kids a go.
To get back on topic, if we play roughly the same 18 as round 1 last year -(including Hird and Lloyd) I think that we would finish no higher than 10th.
I think injury free we are a huge chance to make the 8.
We have had no luck in the last 5 seasons and surely its time for the worm to turn.
If we had a full herd of cattle to choose from we'd be a force. Especially now our backline has just been strengthened with the best two full backs in the league.
We just need those players like Winderlich, Laycock, Hille, Johns, Lee, Dempsey, Nash, Slattery to take that step forward and play some consistent footy. A big ask but i am confident most of them can do it.
We will be back next year, i'm optimistic. That draft was huge for us and the recruiting of Gumbleton, Davey, Houli, Jetta has given me cause for great hope for the years to come.
We have had no luck in the last 5 seasons and surely its time for the worm to turn.
If we had a full herd of cattle to choose from we'd be a force. Especially now our backline has just been strengthened with the best two full backs in the league.
We just need those players like Winderlich, Laycock, Hille, Johns, Lee, Dempsey, Nash, Slattery to take that step forward and play some consistent footy. A big ask but i am confident most of them can do it.
We will be back next year, i'm optimistic. That draft was huge for us and the recruiting of Gumbleton, Davey, Houli, Jetta has given me cause for great hope for the years to come.
As much as I would love to see us make the 8 next year - I think that would be counter-productive to the team moving forward. Sure you can blame the loss of Lloyd and other key players to the fact that we didn’t win many games, but more importantly it showed that we had some major deficiencies in our team (well documented).
Our skills at times were woeful - couldn't hit the side of a barn stuff was almost embarrassing. My hope is that we work on our skills over the summer and give the younger guys plenty of game time to get experience and exposure and we will definitely move in the right direction.
Thinking that the new guys that we recruited are going to make a major impact in their first year is putting way too much pressure on them to succeed - Michael being the sole exception.
My view is we will finish between 10-12. We have more chance to push for the 8 in 2008. BTW – I have a funny feeling the Saints are in for a fall. New coach, key players coming back from major injuries.
Our skills at times were woeful - couldn't hit the side of a barn stuff was almost embarrassing. My hope is that we work on our skills over the summer and give the younger guys plenty of game time to get experience and exposure and we will definitely move in the right direction.
Thinking that the new guys that we recruited are going to make a major impact in their first year is putting way too much pressure on them to succeed - Michael being the sole exception.
My view is we will finish between 10-12. We have more chance to push for the 8 in 2008. BTW – I have a funny feeling the Saints are in for a fall. New coach, key players coming back from major injuries.
-
billyduckworth
- Club Captain
- Posts: 3044
- Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:16 am
- Location: Adelaide
I think we could be playing finals footy next year.
I'm predicting 2007 to be a very even year competition wide, no real stand out team.
I think 2008 will be the year we improve significantly, along with Geelong and Carlton.
I think Sydney's premiership window is closing, as is St Kildas and probably the Dees.
I am also interested to see how west coast fare next year....how much of a hangover they carry. Despite their stellar midfield/ruck I aint convinced they are the dominate team that say the lions put together.
I'm predicting 2007 to be a very even year competition wide, no real stand out team.
I think 2008 will be the year we improve significantly, along with Geelong and Carlton.
I think Sydney's premiership window is closing, as is St Kildas and probably the Dees.
I am also interested to see how west coast fare next year....how much of a hangover they carry. Despite their stellar midfield/ruck I aint convinced they are the dominate team that say the lions put together.
Obviously we add Lloyd & Michael back in, which is a big plus. But I don't think the new draftees will make any significant difference (EVERY teams draftees this year are probably pretty good).
Remember, we finished 15th this year and had HALF the points of the next best team, the Kangaroos. Its a pretty big gulf to fill, although there were a number of close games.
On the injury front, Lloyd has to prove he can stay on the park (and be as effective), Hird & Fletcher will almost certainly miss a chunk, and Lucas, Campo, JJ, MJ and Michael are all at ages where injuries creep in. Given their importance to our side, this will probably hit us hard.
Overall, I think we'll finish 14th. We'll beat Carlton, and probably one of Brisbane/Richmond. I think North underperformed, and we won't be better than them, and Hawthorn & Port I expect to improve a bit. I've a feeling Richmond may slide (don't particularly rate them). Geelong I think should clearly be final 8 contenders.
So, I think 14th is fair.
Last year I predicted 12th (http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=229539)
Remember, we finished 15th this year and had HALF the points of the next best team, the Kangaroos. Its a pretty big gulf to fill, although there were a number of close games.
On the injury front, Lloyd has to prove he can stay on the park (and be as effective), Hird & Fletcher will almost certainly miss a chunk, and Lucas, Campo, JJ, MJ and Michael are all at ages where injuries creep in. Given their importance to our side, this will probably hit us hard.
Overall, I think we'll finish 14th. We'll beat Carlton, and probably one of Brisbane/Richmond. I think North underperformed, and we won't be better than them, and Hawthorn & Port I expect to improve a bit. I've a feeling Richmond may slide (don't particularly rate them). Geelong I think should clearly be final 8 contenders.
So, I think 14th is fair.
Last year I predicted 12th (http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=229539)
-
CameronClayton
- High Draft Pick
- Posts: 652
- Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:42 am
I'd agree with antcl - I reckon about 14th with BrisVegas & the Bloos below us.
People who are talking up the 8 must have short memories of last season - to go from 3 & 1/2 wins to 12 wins is a big jump. Sure the filth did it this year, but they did tank half of 2005.
People also need to remember that the 13th & 14th teams from this year had 7 wins, so even jumping from 15th to 14th next year will mean a 100% improvement on this year's results (3.5 wins to 7 wins). Even beating an ordinary team like Norf will be an achievement in 2007, as we haven't beaten them in about 5 years!
While the recruitment of big bad Mal is a coup, & it's better to have him for us rather than against us, the whole thing smells of a bit of a patch up, quick fix job, like we did between 2002 & 2004 where we just treaded water for a few years in 6th spot.
Premierships are now won by teams who build from the ground up, there are no short cuts. And if people think I'm a pessimist, I'm expecting back to back flags in 2011 & 2012 - we are now on the right track.
People who are talking up the 8 must have short memories of last season - to go from 3 & 1/2 wins to 12 wins is a big jump. Sure the filth did it this year, but they did tank half of 2005.
People also need to remember that the 13th & 14th teams from this year had 7 wins, so even jumping from 15th to 14th next year will mean a 100% improvement on this year's results (3.5 wins to 7 wins). Even beating an ordinary team like Norf will be an achievement in 2007, as we haven't beaten them in about 5 years!
While the recruitment of big bad Mal is a coup, & it's better to have him for us rather than against us, the whole thing smells of a bit of a patch up, quick fix job, like we did between 2002 & 2004 where we just treaded water for a few years in 6th spot.
Premierships are now won by teams who build from the ground up, there are no short cuts. And if people think I'm a pessimist, I'm expecting back to back flags in 2011 & 2012 - we are now on the right track.
Damn... that is one of the smartest things that has ever been written on this site. You should be a bookie!jimmyc1985 wrote:Well, I'm much more optimistic about 2007 now than what I was a week ago, as I feel we've drafted well and I also feel as though the acquisition of Michael, providing his head is in the right place, will be a positive. That being said, I still think our chances of making the 8 are less than 50-50.
Of the teams that finished between 9th and 14th last year, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn all have legitimate expectations of pushing for the top 8 next year, which makes it harder for us. However, i'd be disappointed if we couldn't outperform the Kangaroos and Brisbane next year, as I reckon those two teams are in for a tough couple of years. Naturally, I'd also be frustrated if we couldn't stay ahead of Carlton.
Of the teams in this year's top 8 that might slide next year, Collingwood and Melbourne look the two most likely clubs in my opinion to slide out of the 8. Whether they will slide far enough so that we can overtake them is a moot point, and my answer is that we probably won't, at least not in the space of one year.
All in all, I'd give us perhaps a 1/3 chance of making next year's finals, with the realisation that in spite of our apparent strong drafting and the acquisition of Michael (as well as having Lloyd as essentially a new reruit), we've still got at least one more down year to come. I think we'll finish 11th, and the teams we will beat home are (in no particular order): Carlton, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Richmond and Port.
At a logical level I agree with you completely but at a supporter level I think we'll make the eight for sure. The introduction of Lloyd and big Mal makes us a completely different team and there will be 16 other blokes on the field walking six inches taller. Our kids in the middle are starting to come of age, too.
I'm going to jump on odds over 5s for essendon to make the eight.
Im going to look at this a different way. To make the 8 next year Essendon needs 12 - 13 wins. The possible wins I reckon are:
- Round 2 vs Fremantle, Dome - Dockers dont always travel well
- Round 3 vs Carlton, MCG - Carlton, enough said
- Round 4 vs St Kilda, Dome - Saints flag window could be closing
- Round 5 vs Collingwood, MCG - beat them last year
- Round 6 vs Hawthorn, MCG - their kids could step up, but so should Ess
- Round 7 vs Kangaroos, Dome - Roos list aint great
- Round 8 vs Bris, Dome - the glory days are over Brissie
- Round 9 vs Richmond, MCG - nearly beat them both times last year
- Round 13 vs Melb, Dome - jumped them early in the match last time
- Round 16 vs Collingwood, MCG - see above
- Round 18 vs Hawthorn, Dome
- Round 20 vs Carlton, MCG - see above
- Round 21 vs Richmond, MCG- see above
Thats 13 potential wins and assumes that Essendon lose to West Coast twice, Sydney at SCG, Adelaide twice, Fremantle at Subiaco, Bulldogs at home, Port at AAMI, Geelong at Dome. Optimistic but possible and still allows for losing nine matches.
- Round 2 vs Fremantle, Dome - Dockers dont always travel well
- Round 3 vs Carlton, MCG - Carlton, enough said
- Round 4 vs St Kilda, Dome - Saints flag window could be closing
- Round 5 vs Collingwood, MCG - beat them last year
- Round 6 vs Hawthorn, MCG - their kids could step up, but so should Ess
- Round 7 vs Kangaroos, Dome - Roos list aint great
- Round 8 vs Bris, Dome - the glory days are over Brissie
- Round 9 vs Richmond, MCG - nearly beat them both times last year
- Round 13 vs Melb, Dome - jumped them early in the match last time
- Round 16 vs Collingwood, MCG - see above
- Round 18 vs Hawthorn, Dome
- Round 20 vs Carlton, MCG - see above
- Round 21 vs Richmond, MCG- see above
Thats 13 potential wins and assumes that Essendon lose to West Coast twice, Sydney at SCG, Adelaide twice, Fremantle at Subiaco, Bulldogs at home, Port at AAMI, Geelong at Dome. Optimistic but possible and still allows for losing nine matches.
A lot of people have talked about the team improving if they can rediscover their self confidence. From this list it shows us potentially winning 8 of the first 9 games.Crowny wrote:Im going to look at this a different way. To make the 8 next year Essendon needs 12 - 13 wins. The possible wins I reckon are:
- Round 2 vs Fremantle, Dome - Dockers dont always travel well
- Round 3 vs Carlton, MCG - Carlton, enough said
- Round 4 vs St Kilda, Dome - Saints flag window could be closing
- Round 5 vs Collingwood, MCG - beat them last year
- Round 6 vs Hawthorn, MCG - their kids could step up, but so should Ess
- Round 7 vs Kangaroos, Dome - Roos list aint great
- Round 8 vs Bris, Dome - the glory days are over Brissie
- Round 9 vs Richmond, MCG - nearly beat them both times last year
- Round 13 vs Melb, Dome - jumped them early in the match last time
- Round 16 vs Collingwood, MCG - see above
- Round 18 vs Hawthorn, Dome
- Round 20 vs Carlton, MCG - see above
- Round 21 vs Richmond, MCG- see above
Thats 13 potential wins and assumes that Essendon lose to West Coast twice, Sydney at SCG, Adelaide twice, Fremantle at Subiaco, Bulldogs at home, Port at AAMI, Geelong at Dome. Optimistic but possible and still allows for losing nine matches.
IF we do that, then it would have a snowball effect and we could start thinking more wins.
Of course winning those eight games might be a bit out of our reach but it is a nice thought.
"You can quote me on this... He is gawn" - bomberdonnie re Hurley's contract status 25 February 2012
Looking at that list actually makes me a bit more pessimistic than I was. The other nine look like hard odds to lose, and a lot of those matches I really can't see us winning unless the youngsters have a huge leap forward. Which is possible, but I've been waiting for the youngsters to do that for five years.Crowny wrote:- Round 2 vs Fremantle, Dome - Dockers dont always travel well
- Round 3 vs Carlton, MCG - Carlton, enough said
- Round 4 vs St Kilda, Dome - Saints flag window could be closing
- Round 5 vs Collingwood, MCG - beat them last year
- Round 6 vs Hawthorn, MCG - their kids could step up, but so should Ess
- Round 7 vs Kangaroos, Dome - Roos list aint great
- Round 8 vs Bris, Dome - the glory days are over Brissie
- Round 9 vs Richmond, MCG - nearly beat them both times last year
- Round 13 vs Melb, Dome - jumped them early in the match last time
- Round 16 vs Collingwood, MCG - see above
- Round 18 vs Hawthorn, Dome
- Round 20 vs Carlton, MCG - see above
- Round 21 vs Richmond, MCG- see above
I think we'll win about 6 or 7 of those matches. Quite possibly less.
Of course, if we win four or less we do get an extra pick before Round 1 of the draft. Makes you want us to do either very well or very badly.
-
jimmyc1985
- Champion of Essendon
- Posts: 5869
- Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:33 pm
- Location: Position A
andrewb wrote:Damn... that is one of the smartest things that has ever been written on this site. You should be a bookie!jimmyc1985 wrote:Well, I'm much more optimistic about 2007 now than what I was a week ago, as I feel we've drafted well and I also feel as though the acquisition of Michael, providing his head is in the right place, will be a positive. That being said, I still think our chances of making the 8 are less than 50-50.
Of the teams that finished between 9th and 14th last year, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Hawthorn all have legitimate expectations of pushing for the top 8 next year, which makes it harder for us. However, i'd be disappointed if we couldn't outperform the Kangaroos and Brisbane next year, as I reckon those two teams are in for a tough couple of years. Naturally, I'd also be frustrated if we couldn't stay ahead of Carlton.
Of the teams in this year's top 8 that might slide next year, Collingwood and Melbourne look the two most likely clubs in my opinion to slide out of the 8. Whether they will slide far enough so that we can overtake them is a moot point, and my answer is that we probably won't, at least not in the space of one year.
All in all, I'd give us perhaps a 1/3 chance of making next year's finals, with the realisation that in spite of our apparent strong drafting and the acquisition of Michael (as well as having Lloyd as essentially a new reruit), we've still got at least one more down year to come. I think we'll finish 11th, and the teams we will beat home are (in no particular order): Carlton, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Richmond and Port.
At a logical level I agree with you completely but at a supporter level I think we'll make the eight for sure. The introduction of Lloyd and big Mal makes us a completely different team and there will be 16 other blokes on the field walking six inches taller. Our kids in the middle are starting to come of age, too.
I'm going to jump on odds over 5s for essendon to make the eight.
... That's a fair pump up! Although i got my uni results yesterday and if that's one of the smartest things ever written on this site, then we're in a bit of strife 
! And, that's not to mention the Round 19 Collingwood debacle where i gave Essendon no chance and was offering $5, and i would've been cleaned out as a bookie then and there 
.By the way, Essendon are currently $2.75 on TABSportsbet to make the 8 next year, so barring catastrophe i don't think you'll get $5. For the record, i wouldn't touch us at $2.75.
