Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

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Windy_Hill
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Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Windy_Hill » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:54 pm

Putting aside the first two rounds, where the new 666 rule was being road tested by all teams and our Club's form was terrible, there seems to be an early sign that the Bomber's crash and dash off half back is perfectly suited to the new rule.

Now I will have to humbly give credit to Worsfold if in fact this is a true observation.

Lets look at the winning scores over the last 2 rounds

Round 3 Winners and their Score

Geelong - 99pts
Sydney - 93pts
Giants - 125pts
Brisbane - 107pts
West Coast - 98pts
Gold Coast - 73pts
Hawthorn - 87pts
Fremantle - 71pts

ESSENDON - 130pts

Average winning score - incl Essendon 98.1
Average Winning Score - excl Essendon 94.1 (-35.9 point differential compared to Essendon Winning Score)

Round 4 Winners and their Score

Melbourne - 100pts
Collingwood - 78pts
Giants - 79pts
Richmond - 99pts
North - 71pts
West Coast - 69pts
Gold Coast - 59pts
St Kilda - 74pts

ESSENDON - 112PTS

Average Winning Score - incl Essendon - 82.3
Average Winning Score - excl Essendon - 78.6 (-33.4 point differential compared to Essendon Winning Score)


So in a nutshell and although it is early days, when we win, we do so by scoring on average 5 goals more than other winning teams. Quite a contrast to our opening two rounds of underscoring.

Could it b that the 666 rule plays right into Essendon's fast pace, slingshot style of game?

Be interested in everyone's thoughts?

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by MH_Bomber » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:14 am

Not enough data to comment but be aware if we are seen as being a recipient of advantage the rule will be rescinded. Clarkson has already commented on the fact that the scoring is on average lower.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by BenDoolan » Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:32 am

Maybe if professional footballers stopped missing goals from point blank range, they would kick higher scores? Some of the kicking for goal has been deadset f****** atrocious. And that’s only from a small sample of other games I’ve watched.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Crazyman » Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:23 am

BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:32 am
Maybe if professional footballers stopped missing goals from point blank range, they would kick higher scores? Some of the kicking for goal has been deadset f****** atrocious. And that’s only from a small sample of other games I’ve watched.
Yep. And IMO that is what suits us with the ability to run and carry off half back... I dread when we come up against a decent team that can kick truly...

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by nudder12 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:51 pm

I don't have the stats, but probably a better measure of the influence of the 666 rule would be goals from centre clearances.
I think I remember in Round 2 someone on TV mentioned it, and there was no difference from last year.
Once the centre clearance is completed it's like 30 seconds and everyone is back to their full zoning/press situations anyway.

The only other influence I can think of is where we lose the centre clearance, but then rebound from our D50 - are we better at that than anyone else??
Even if we are, not sure that is really a factor of the 666 rule, because generally teams load their backline rather than forward line, so our D50 would be just as empty under previous rules.

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by hop » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:37 pm

nudder12 wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:51 pm
I don't have the stats, but probably a better measure of the influence of the 666 rule would be goals from centre clearances.
I think I remember in Round 2 someone on TV mentioned it, and there was no difference from last year.
Once the centre clearance is completed it's like 30 seconds and everyone is back to their full zoning/press situations anyway.

The only other influence I can think of is where we lose the centre clearance, but then rebound from our D50 - are we better at that than anyone else??
Even if we are, not sure that is really a factor of the 666 rule, because generally teams load their backline rather than forward line, so our D50 would be just as empty under previous rules.
Agree.

I suspect our turn-around in form is more likely to be down to doing what we do best - as opposed to any rule changes.

At least this year it appears to be a fortnight of experimentation and pre-season funk rather than the two months last season.

Only time will tell.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Windy_Hill » Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm

It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by BenDoolan » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Windy_Hill » Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm

BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by nudder12 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:15 pm

The answer is no.
To demonstrate more clearly......as you keep saying, you've based your question on just the last 2 rounds. So let's look at the full 4 rounds completed so far. On average, Essendon have scored less than their direct opponents.

More broadly, the average score AGAINST for all sides excluding Essendon is 321 for 4 rounds. Essendon have conceded 365. (-44).
The average score FOR for all sides excluding Essendon is 322. Essendon have scored 347. (+25).
Nett result we're 19 points worse off than everyone else's average for & against.
So it's not really panning out for us.

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by BenDoolan » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:14 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances
Did it work in our favour v GWS or Saints? Saints were predicted to be a bottom 4 team.

Too much emphasis is put on 666. The second the ball is bounced, players can enter the defensive zone and flood the area. Unless we are scoring goals from quick centre clearances, 666 is irrelevant. Our ‘slingshot’ means nothing to 666.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Wally » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:59 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances
To answer your question it is exactly why - both oppositions were terrible on the day. Doesn’t matter who they are or where they were positioned on the ladder - they both applied zero pressure for majority of the games. When they did actually have a serious crack at us, we slowed down, didn’t have the easy run and spread and our decision making and skills became suspect.

Pretty much what occurred consistently for the first 2 weeks.

Test will be over the next few games. Now that we have our confidence up we should be in a better position to combat and work through that pressure.

Don’t believe that 666 has anything to do with it.

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Windy Hille » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:53 pm

666 is just a brief moment in time. There is more contributing factors in the other 95% game time. The slingshot is a point in time where players are free to roam all over the field. Given our forwards were backwards before running forwards means 666 is not part of the equation. Most of our goals v Lions were slingshotting rebounds from defence. In fact, I don’t even know if we scored one goal from a centre clearance (where 666 would be a factor)

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by s'dreams » Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:29 am

After 4 rounds, we still have a percentage well below 100%.

No sure how this translates into the new rule suiting us.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by ZeroEffect » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:03 am

To me, it looks like the 6 6 6 is doing the opposite of what it was intended to do. Locking 12 players into each arc and 2 of those starting at the goal square means it makes it harder to score quick goals straight from the centre as each forward 50 is heavily congested now. Sure you might be able to get it out of the centre more easily as those players can't impact the centre clearance but your paying for it down the field.

I don't believe it's hindered or helped Essendon very much. Maybe get Daniher back in and at his best and things might change 8)

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by Windy_Hill » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:16 am

Some interesting view and I agree with it being too early to draw any conclusions.

However it does seem in general that the 666 rule has had a negative impact on scoring in general.

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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by hop » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:59 pm

BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:14 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances
Did it work in our favour v GWS or Saints? Saints were predicted to be a bottom 4 team.

Too much emphasis is put on 666. The second the ball is bounced, players can enter the defensive zone and flood the area. Unless we are scoring goals from quick centre clearances, 666 is irrelevant. Our ‘slingshot’ means nothing to 666.
I want that last sentence on a T-shirt.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by hop » Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:02 pm

Wally wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:59 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances
To answer your question it is exactly why - both oppositions were terrible on the day. Doesn’t matter who they are or where they were positioned on the ladder - they both applied zero pressure for majority of the games. When they did actually have a serious crack at us, we slowed down, didn’t have the easy run and spread and our decision making and skills became suspect.

Pretty much what occurred consistently for the first 2 weeks.

Test will be over the next few games. Now that we have our confidence up we should be in a better position to combat and work through that pressure.

Don’t believe that 666 has anything to do with it.
Interesting chicken and egg Wally.

Opposition pressure or our willingness to take the game on,,,,,,,
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by s'dreams » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:37 pm

hop wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:59 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:14 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:43 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:13 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:56 pm
It’s not so much about the reasons for our turnaround in form. More the point that relative to the rest of the competition, over the last 2 rounds, we are scoring on average 5 to 6 goals more a game.

It’s an early observation admittedly but it’s a very real one. Our pace is definitely exposing teams and we are able to clear big holes in our fwd 50. I can’t remember a game when we had so many guys literally runnnig onto the ball in acres of space. Under 666, there is no opportunity to flood the back line and therefore stopping teams on a roll maybe more challenging. The question I am raising is are we more able to exploit the new rule than other teams?
Let’s see how we go when we play teams like Collingwood and West Coast. I think I already know what will happen. We saw a glimpse of it against GWS.
Sure, however the point remains that relative to the rest of the competition, we are scoring far more freely. So this is not about our chances of beating better credentialed competition but rather why are scores over the last 2 weeks so low except for the Bombers. It cant be because our opposition were terrible teams - one is a flag favourite and the other was undefeated?

So to my point, is 666 working to our favour, granted after only a couple of weeks of good performances
Did it work in our favour v GWS or Saints? Saints were predicted to be a bottom 4 team.

Too much emphasis is put on 666. The second the ball is bounced, players can enter the defensive zone and flood the area. Unless we are scoring goals from quick centre clearances, 666 is irrelevant. Our ‘slingshot’ means nothing to 666.
I want that last sentence on a T-shirt.
I once did a coaching workshop with Robert Walls (who engaged in a bit of Essendon bating) who gave a frank insight into strategy and getting around the rules.

He utilized Mil Hanna as a wrecking ball. His instruction to Hanna was to sprint into the center at the bounce and target and bump/hit the opposition's most effective midfielder. The momentum of the 20 meter dash would cause more damage than someone close by.

I can see this happening again.
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Re: Is Essendon Better Suited to 666 than Other Teams?

Post by grassy1 » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:46 pm

Did the Bearded Clam have anything to say about 1 D.Wallis running through Mil,s’dreams?

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