Analysis: The Run Home

Madden · Post by **Madden** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 9:56 am

Maybe our draw doesn't suck as much as we first thought.

Its impossible to do Ladder Predictors because there are so many 50-50 games in the last few weeks, meaning there are endless combinations.

My reading of this is follows: There will be a team who wins 12 and misses the 8 on percentage. It will probably be either us or St.Kilda.

We need to win 3 more, and belt Carlton and Richmond to make sure it isn't us. Having said that, St. Kilda are in menacing form and also play Richmond.

Have a look at the runs home of the main contenders below. A lot of them play each other.

Thoughts?

_________________________

7th: SYDNEY: 36 116.5
Melbourne (Manuka)
St. Kilda (TS)
Brisbane (G)
Collingwood (MCG)
Hawthorn (SCG)

8th: ESSENDON 36 96.7
Hawthorn (MCG)
Fremantle (S)
Carlton (MCG)
Richmond (MCG)
West Coast (S)

9th: ST.KILDA 36 94.5
Bulldogs (TD)
Sydney (TS)
Fremantle (TD)
West Coast (TD)
Richmond (MCG)

10th: BULLDOGS 36 92.7
St.Kilda (TD)
Melbourne (TD)
Adelaide (AAMI)
Hawthorn (TD)
Kangaroos (TD)

11th: BRISBANE 34 110.9
Kangaroos (G)
Hawthorn (MCG)
Sydney (G)
Adelaide (AAMI)
Geelong (G)

12th: ADELAIDE 32 108.6
Port Adelaide (AAMI)
Geelong (SS)
Bulldogs (AAMI)
Brisbane (AAMI)
Collingwood (MCG)

_________________________

Rossoneri · Post by **Rossoneri** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:12 am

I reckon its out of us and St Kilda for the last spot.

And even though Collingwood may have an easy run home, dont discount them dropping to 8th, if not out of it. We are only one game behind them and they have Sydney and Adelaide in the last two weeks.

tonysoprano · Post by **tonysoprano** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:38 am

i think there's a mistake in the fixtures you've given

both stk and wb play melb in 2 weeks time?
should it read stk v syd?

tonysoprano · Post by **tonysoprano** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:39 am

...we will only win 2 more games I think

lozza89 · Post by **lozza89** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:55 am

We are a massive chance to beat Freo over there. We can beat Hawks this week, we should beat carlton and richmond, and the Freo game is what it will come down to. We can beat them there, just depends on what fremantle team decides to turn up that day.

andrewb · Post by **andrewb** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:38 am

Collingwood and Hawthorn will be looking over their shoulders now as well. As the season wears on, the young kids go off the boil. That's when the core of your list starts to stand up. Collingwood have a pretty good run home but Hawthorn have us, brisbane, port, bulldogs, sydney. If we win this week we should make the finals.

At this stage I'm punting on the bottom four comprising sydney, colllingwood, us and st kilda.

Big win against adelaide - nice work boys.

Essendon4eva · Post by **Essendon4eva** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:11 pm

Also remember, that by beating Hawthron next week we become even with them on points.

Windy_Hill · Post by **Windy_Hill** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:17 pm

For a start, I am not so sure that St Kilda is in red hot form having just struggled to get over the line against the Scum.

We have to beat Hawthorn or else the rest is academic. I wouldnt be banking on a certain win against either Carlton (who we have already lost to) or Richmond (who we were lucky to beat).

Hawthorn are coming off a loss and have some high profile players coming back in.

In all honesty, we can do this. However, it will need a huge effort. Any slip ups, like the way we blew a 7 goal lead against Carlton earlier in the year will mean Sheedy coaches his last game, and Hirdy plays his last game at Subiaco in rnd 22

dom_105 · Post by **dom_105** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:40 pm

It's a harsh year when 12 wins dosen't get you in to the finals.

Madden · Post by **Madden** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:43 pm

Rossoneri wrote:And even though Collingwood may have an easy run home, dont discount them dropping to 8th, if not out of it. We are only one game behind them and they have Sydney and Adelaide in the last two weeks.

Are you kidding?

They play Carlton, Richmond, and Melbourne in their next three games. They also play Sydney and Adelaide both in Melbourne. There's no way they will drop to 8th, or out of the 8. The lowest I could see them finishing would be 5th with that draw. (they will win at least 3, probably 4, or maybe even 5).

Hawthorn are much more likely to drop out. Their run is as follows:

5th: HAWTHORN 40 110.5
Essendon (MCG)
Brisbane (MCG)
Port Adelaide (Aurora)
Bulldogs (TD)
Sydney (SCG)

They'll probably still make it but would need to win at least 2 of those.

rockhole · Post by **rockhole** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 2:07 pm

The Age is suggesting that Fletcher, Lovett and even Hird will be available next week. Hawthorn perhaps without Mitchell, Buddy, Crawf and Lewis.

Stongly doubt James playing, but did not expect Winder to come up so early against Crows.

Looks like a wet day at the "G"

Definite chance as weather will slow them down.

Simply must win again.

merc_2 · Post by **merc_2** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:50 pm

We must beat Hawthorn this week. Fremantle is a tough one...given their unpredictable form and our terrible travel form, god knows. Must beat Carlton and Richmond. Beating WCE is a long shot.

12 wins is our best scenario and hopefully the percentage will be enough. No use predicting...lets take it one week at a time.

GO BOMBERS

F111 · Post by **F111** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:51 pm

Our best scenario is 14 wins. Unlikely as wc would likely do us over. X factor though..Sheeds and Hird.
Next best 13 wins.
Then 12 wins. Freo and hawks are vulnerable.

Our players have 5 games to impress the next lot of coaching staff. Go to it boys.

Post by **Jazz_84** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:54 pm

can't see Hird getting up this week, as important as every game is, i think they wont rush him back at all, and rightly so.... but if he is 100% then i don't see why not but yeah i think maybe only 97% is what he will be

Post by **Jazz_84** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:58 pm

merc_2 wrote:Fremantle is a tough one...given their unpredictable form and our terrible travel form, god knows.
GO BOMBERS

away form hasn't been so bad this year...

AND

Sandilands out will bring Watson and co into the game at the bounces

David Hill will have an easier day in the ruck that will give him confidence for other aspects of his game... along with his leadership on the ground

it all adds up you know

swoodley · Post by **swoodley** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:06 pm

merc_2 wrote:We must beat Hawthorn this week. Fremantle is a tough one...given their unpredictable form and our terrible travel form, god knows. Must beat Carlton and Richmond. Beating WCE is a long shot.

12 wins is our best scenario and hopefully the percentage will be enough. No use predicting...lets take it one week at a time.

GO BOMBERS

Not so terrible this year...we've beaten Adelaide and Sydney on their own dung heaps and although not a real game, we also beat the eagles in Perth during pre season.

Sismis · Post by **Sismis** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:13 pm

Adelaide will win 3. Wont make it
Bulldogs 1 or 2. WOnt make it
Sydney will win 2 WOnt make it
Saints could win 1-4 a possibility
We will win 2-4 a possibility
Brisbane no "sure wins" 0-4 a possibility

12 win will get you in the 8.

spikefan · Post by **spikefan** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:14 pm

It was one of this year's major improvements: we won games interstate. Next we will win at the G (this coming sunday).

swoodley · Post by **swoodley** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:15 pm

Sismis wrote:Adelaide will win 3. Wont make it
Bulldogs 1 or 2. WOnt make it
Sydney will win 2 WOnt make it
Saints could win 1-4 a possibility
We will win 2-4 a possibility
Brisbane no "sure wins" 0-4 a possibility

12 win will get you in the 8.

Surely some of them have to make it

Rossoneri · Post by **Rossoneri** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:35 pm

Sismis wrote:Adelaide will win 3. Wont make it - I reckon two
Bulldogs 1 or 2. WOnt make it
Sydney will win 2 WOnt make it - I reckon they will win 3, probably will make it
Saints could win 1-4 a possibility - Reckon they will win three
We will win 2-4 a possibility - I reckon 3
Brisbane no "sure wins" 0-4 a possibility - Agree. Their games at the GABBA are against the wrong teams for them.

12 win will get you in the 8.

I reckon we may just miss out.
I think Sydney and the saints will get in.

Wouldnt it be a delight if Carlton win this week. Not only will it hurt Collingwood, but they will also lose the priority pick. Should we win, we would go above them (or just behind on percentage)