I would say the football we served the last few weeks has been far more pathetic, weak and shithouse than what Richmond, Melbourne or Carlton have served up all year.
Now going on current form, I would say that Carlton would have to be favourite to beat us. I mean they've challenged top 8 (possibly) top 4 teams the past couple of weeks, while we've been absolutely flogged by them.
So taking that into consideration I would say that it would have to raise some doubts about Carlton intent if they do happen to get beaten, particularly if we flog them.
Your middle paragraph is spot on. They have only lost marginally to St Kilda, Collingwood and Port, whereas we have been trounced in the last couple of weeks.
Add to that a 6-day break and coming back from Perth.