Bottom 4 to Flag

[jimmyc1985]

We're looking at another bottom 4 finish this year, on the evidence presented thus far. I thought i'd look back through history to see how long it takes teams who finish in the bottom 4 to rise and win a premiership. History indicates that a premiership for us before 2011 seems extremely unlikely.

I went back through the last 11 seasons (since 1997, the year after Fitzroy exited) and found that 4 teams who've occupied a bottom 4 spot since 1997 have since gone on to win a flag:
- Essendon (finished 13th in 1997, flag in 2000);
- Brisbane (finished 16th in 1998, flag in 2001-02-03);
- Port (finished 14th in 2000, flag in 2004);
- West Coast (finished 13th in 2000 and 14th in 2001, flag in 2006).

The minimum turnaround time from bottom 4 to flag has been 3 years (us and Brisbane). If Hawthorn go on to win it this year, they'll have achieved a 3 year turnaround as well (finished 14th in 2005). Although, i suppose you could mount an argument that a 2 year turnaround from bottom 4 to flag is possible when you look at Essendon in 1999 and Port in 2002, both of whom finished on top of the ladder and could've gone on to win the flag but bombed in finals.

In addition, the two teams who have achieved what seems the bare minimum 3 year turnaround have had absolute AFL champions (Hird & Voss) to help in their climb back up the ladder.

In light of these facts, i'm beginning to question whether we're even a remote chance of winning the flag before 2012. That would be a 4 year turnaround from bottom 4 to flag which seems difficult enough to do, and ostensibly there isn't anyone on our list of the calibre of a Hird or Voss to lead our charge toward a flag. There still seems to be some people who reckon we'll be challenging in 2010-2011 (assuming most things go right), but on this analysis that seems far-fetched.

Thoughts?

[MH_Bomber]

My fear is the drubbings that we may be on the end of in the learning curve phase will send a few players backwards in terms of their confidence and this could delay any thrust for a our 17th flag.

P.S. I was was only thinking the other day about the Mighty Quinn song and lo and behold you've adopted it as your signature.

[hop]

Jimmy - I also worry about our lack of marque players and the leadership that they instill.

I can honestly never remember a time when we were so bereft of superstars or potential champions of the club. We've had a couple of false dawns over the past two years and now the best we can come up with is fading stars. (Lucas, Lloyd, Fletch).

I go back to Barry Davis, Neville Fields, Graham Moss - even in the wasteland that was the 1970's, we had some sort of cult of personality. It was our refuge because the team was, for the most part, ******* useless. It appears now, we neither have stars or team.

[gringo]

Interesting posts.

Similar to our lack of genuine stars (other than the fading ones in the twilight of their careers) we have precious few older players to mentor our younger crew. Who the hell is going to point our midfielders in the right direction during a game? Whilst we have Lucas/Lloyd up forward and Michael/Fletcher down back to call the shots and mentor Ryder, Gumbleton etc, who have we got to show our young midfield the ropes? No one, with the possible exception of McVeigh, or JJ and Pev and who aren't getting a game.

This is a major problem for EFC. Any successful business that intakes a lot of young professionals ensures that they have abundant access to senior members of the organisation to ensure that from day one, they are heading in the right direction. I don't see how this problem can be easily addressed.

[Chris]

We dont have a stand out atm, but thats not to say that one of our current crop might step up as the next A list player in the afl. I think the 22-26 year old guys we are looking at to step into the 'A' list today wont make it. Monfries, Stanton, Dyson, Slattery,Watson etc. will never be 'A' list players, for all their strengths each have far too many weaknesses. However we do have a number of very high potential players in the 18-21 year old category who are showing a great deal of potential.

Im convinced Ryder will get there in 2-3 years and will do so as dominating a ruckman and look no further than WC to see how benefitial they can be to a side. Dempsey looks electric and skillfull and if we can get him on the park, I have strong feelings about how good that boy can be and Jetta could be the partner in crime to fit our equivelent of Judd/Kerr midfield. Gumbleton has been spoken about as a future 'A' list CHF, he might take a little longer, especially if he keeps getting injured but he might be our next Lucus. Neagle has shown promise as a hard leading forward, not in the mould of Lloyd, but maybe a Roughhead type forward.

Sure we are rubbish now, and will probably get worse in the next two years as we continue to offload experience to introduce youth, but a 3 year turnaround is feasable IF the above players continue to develop as expected. I do remember thinking Monfries, Hill and Lazycock would be our next 'A' listers a few years back, so hell, It could go that way too. Hope not.

Edit--- If knights keeps coaching the way he is we will always be rubbish no matter who we have on our list. Just had to add that in.

[rednblack]

wernt we in the bottom 4 the year before last?

Does that mean we win it next year or the year after.......

[dom_105]

We dont have a stand out atm, but thats not to say that one of our current crop might step up as the next A list player in the afl. I think the 22-26 year old guys we are looking at to step into the 'A' list today wont make it. Monfries, Stanton, Dyson, Slattery,Watson etc. will never be 'A' list players, for all their strengths each have far too many weaknesses.

But do you need an abundance of A list players?

If you look back at the last 4 premiership years, yes there were stars in each team, but there were also quite a number of workhorse-type players who sole focus was getting the ball out of the pack and moving them forward.

If they can do a job effectively, then that is all which should be expected of them.

[jimmyc1985]

wernt we in the bottom 4 the year before last?

Does that mean we win it next year or the year after.......

Yes, we finished 15th in 2006.

But the turnaround times i was talking about from bottom 4 to flag were measured from the most recent year a club spent in the bottom 4. So in West Coast's case when they finished bottom 4 in both 2000 and 2001, i said their turnaround time was 5 years - i.e. from 2001 to 2006. So assuming we finish bottom 4 this year and the minimum realistic turnaround turnaround time is 3 years, i'm saying we've got absolutely no chance of challenging for the flag until 2011 and beyond; if we finish bottom 4 again next year, we've got absolutely no chance of challenging for the flag until at least 2012, etc, etc.

[tonysoprano]

wernt we in the bottom 4 the year before last?

Does that mean we win it next year or the year after.......

Yes, we finished 15th in 2006.

But the turnaround times i was talking about from bottom 4 to flag were measured from the most recent year a club spent in the bottom 4. So in West Coast's case when they finished bottom 4 in both 2000 and 2001, i said their turnaround time was 5 years - i.e. from 2001 to 2006. So assuming we finish bottom 4 this year and the minimum realistic turnaround turnaround time is 3 years, i'm saying we've got absolutely no chance of challenging for the flag until 2011 and beyond; if we finish bottom 4 again next year, we've got absolutely no chance of challenging for the flag until at least 2012, etc, etc.

Given that Mal, Fletch, Lucas and Lloyd will either be retired or on the slide in 3 or 4 years (if not already) - I don't think we are a chance for a decade, unless....

1. Matthew Knights admits sooner rather than later that we have to address every aspect of football - especially preventing theopposition kicking big totals; tackling, manning-up, fitness etc; and that focusing on one thing at a time (e.g. attacking) is not only ludicrous, short-sighted, and demoralising, but also naive and amateur

or

2. Matthew Knights is not the coach of the Essendon Football Club.

[Windy_Hill]

Our best players have all played less than 10 games (except for Paddy)

Gumbleton, Myers, Ryder, Houli, Hislop, Jetta, Dempsey, Daniher, Reimers

Thats a decent group of young talent around which to build a team - they will make players like Watson , Winderlich, Nash, Slattery, Monfries all walk taller - but in 3 years from now