How Long in the Wilderness?

[Windy_Hill]

Now before anyone thinks oh here we go, another team bashing thread, let me state right up front that I am actually not concerned too greatly by the current problems. This is the pain we had to go through 6 years ago being magnified into one sesason.

At the end of 2001, the writing was clearly on the wall that a generational change needed to take place at Essendon. We had a gallant, yet ultimately unsuccessful tilt at the finals that year - our last Grand Final appearance as it now turns out. The remnants of the 2000 team were either going or gone, aging or retiring.

This was the time to say ok, over the next 4 years we are going to rebuild this squad with the best young talent in the land, under the guidance of club greats like Hird, Lloyd, Fletcher and Sheedy. However, some hard decisions will need to be made. Underperformers will have to go, terminally injured players will have to go, poor attitudes will have to go.

So instead of chasing the best youth in the land, the Dons go for washed up has beens. Some, admittedly more serviceable than others, but players that were ultimately filling gaps and never destined to be Bomber greats. The cause of this I put down to the widely held belief at Essendon that the 1998-2002 era should have delivered at least 2, if not 3 Flags. This frustration in NOT achieving this resulted in poor long term planning as the lure of that elusive flag set up an unhealthy recruiting policy. I am sure had we won the flag in 2001, a lot of the emphasis would have shifted to the next generation and not to Allan, Murphy, Camporeale, Alvey etc.

So in my opinion we wated our recruiting for 4 years from 200l to 2005. Sure there were one or two decent players picked up during this period but absolutely none that we can call stars or elite players.

From 2005 I think the message sunk in and the recruiting has improved. Poor ladder positions has also helped in securing higher draft picks.

THE REAL PROBLEM NOW....is that we are likely to be very poor for at least 2-3 more seasons but only have one Draft in which to secure the best young talent. After this season, the new Gold Coast team will have enormous drafting adavantages that will stymie our eforts to rebuild. The key will therefore be to trade players to Gold Coast in exchange for some of their early draft picks. This probably will work well both ways as they will want some experience and name players for marketing purposes. I guess the reality is we dont have too much to offer.

So it could be that unlike Carlton that has been able to rebuild its squad with a galaxy of first pick Draft selections, we may only get one more good year out of the draft. The question then really becomes...

How Long in the Wilderness??

[CameronClayton]

i'd say 3 years, which unfortunately for Knights might cost him his job. I think when he took on the job, he thought we may have been a bit like Hawthorn when Clarkson took over. Clarkson already had a basis of a good team & that need tweaking.

I reckon Knights has come to the realisation that a lot of our senior players are average (McPhee, NLM, Lovett, Welsh etc) plus there are still huge question marks over a few of our 3 to 4 year players (Winder, Dyson & Laycock), & so has put all his eggs in the young'uns basket by playing the kids.

I know I'm repeating myself, but this is the same as what Billy Stephens did in 1977 & it took 4 years to turn it around.

[BenDoolan]

i'd say 3 years, which unfortunately for Knights might cost him his job. I think when he took on the job, he thought we may have been a bit like Hawthorn when Clarkson took over. Clarkson already had a basis of a good team & that need tweaking.

I reckon Knights has come to the realisation that a lot of our senior players are average (McPhee, NLM, Lovett, Welsh etc) plus there are still huge question marks over a few of our 3 to 4 year players (Winder, Dyson & Laycock), & so has put all his eggs in the young'uns basket by playing the kids.

I know I'm repeating myself, but this is the same as what Billy Stephens did in 1977 & it took 4 years to turn it around.

I don't think it will cost him his job. As long as there are positive signs amongst the list at the end of his contract - improvement in the current group of kids, and the recruitment of some other talented one's and perhaps gaining a quality established player or two - we may be on the way to manufacturing a decent group. If that's the case in 3 year's time, then he deserves the chance to drive it. Knight's is a product of the Board's decision to go with youth (replace Sheeds with a young coach). They won't give up on Knights that easily. But as I say, he will need to show some positive signs that the team is heading in the right direction.

[jimmyc1985]

Interesting question. What do you mean by being in "the wilderness"? Is that bottom 4, bottom 8, being in the top 8 but not genuinely challenging for a flag?

For me, being in the bottom 4 is a bit arbitrary in the sense that it can be at least partly determined by what 'direction' a club is taking. For example, Freo might end up avoiding the bottom 4 this year because they're still playing lots of experienced players most weeks, but that won't get them anywhere in the longer term. On the other hand, we might well end up finishing 15th or 16th this year and if we relentlessly play the kids we might also be bottom 4 for the next couple seasons as well.

We won't be top 8 until at least 2010. To make the top 8 by 2010 we'd need our older players to hang on to form as best they can, our younger players (currently 22 and under) to gradually and continuously improve, and a few of the questionable middle-aged players like NLM, Lovett, Welsh, McPhee etc to step up. If that middle group falls away or we trade/delist some of them, then 2010 for a top 8 spot looks overly optimistic.

If your definition of being in the wilderness means not being a genuine challenger for the flag then i'd say, best case scenario, 2012-13. By the end of next year we'll have spent essentially 5 years being a bona fide bottom 4 team, because last year was bullshit when we kept winning games by very small margins with Hird dominating. 5 years as a bottom 4 team. That's a rebuilding phase if i've ever seen one, which rivals Carlton's 'streak' from 2002-2007 (they also had that one bullshit year in 2004 where they got 10th by Pagan topping up with recycled players), and we haven't had to deal with the draft penalties they had. 5 bloody years of crap. And then it takes at least 3 years to go from bottom 4 to being a genuine flag contender.

[tom9779]

FINALS NEXT YEAR!!!!

its in the gameplan , and its a spot on prediction.

we are just scooping up the best talent in the draft next year, as after that it will all be going to the GC and western Sydney.(2010-2012 drafts)

watch us grab natanui and a top shelf midfield prospect this year and be good to go next year, with our gun young midfield.(houli, nash, hislop, lovett, watson, mcveigh all raring to go!)

[hop]

Things can turn around very quickly if you firstly, can keep your list together and secondly, start playing with confidence.

B.D. said it in another thread about North Melbourne. When a team plays with spirit and passion all the other stuff is soon forgotten. Even ladder position! This I think will be the biggest problem Knights has to confront.

Having said that - I think it will be at least until 2010 before we could realistically see us in finals contention. This doesn't however mean the alternative is wilderness. Rising Star nominations, Improved game plan (a plan 'B' would be nice), Increased members and game attendance, thrilling come-from-behind victories etc. etc. These are all realistic outcomes along the journey.

[andrewb]

Well, I just don't know.

At three quarter time against Geelong in round 14 last year I thought we were about a year away. We were 8 wins, 5 losses and really pushing the top team in the competition. We were coming off the back of two emotional 1 point wins against both Sydney and the reigning premier and we had recruited some serious talent that looked ready to step up in 2007. All of a sudden we had lost Hird, Davey, Ryder and Hislop to injury and we all know what happened over the next eight weeks.

By round 9 this year I realised just how far we had declined in twelve short months. We were flogged in every department by last year's wooden spooners (I've rarely seen such a comprehensive smashing on the stats sheet) and our supposed stars of the future (Jetta, Daniher, Ryder, Neagle, Myers, Lonergan, Hislop) got their hands on the pill a combined 48 times.

Knights came in and threw away the accountable brand of football that we were playing at the start of last year and said that our skills were rubbish and that our fitness was rubbish. He has had five months with the players now - I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that our skills are better and we must have the most simplistic game plan in the competition. We handball at all costs and we run forward of the footy even when we're getting a pasting. The only guys that present are the blokes around the ball carrier who are trying to receive the pill rather than doing anything to protect the bloke who has it. We continually run into trouble and try and handball out of it.

Other teams have acres of space against us and frankly if we aren't tanking we're doing a bloody good job of arseing things up at the selection table of late.

All will note that I have been supporting him thus far - he's had injuries to deal with and I thought that he would gradually introduce new tactics over the first few months - but that performance against Richmond with almost a full squad was just deplorable.

If we're going to stick with Knights we need someone to come in and give him a hand because he's f****** useless as a senior coach at the moment. Give the reverend a call and get him to help out with preparation and tactics. The difference between Melbourne last year and Melbourne this year is testamount to his abilities as a coach and we could really use an experienced head at Windy Hill right now.

[jimmyc1985]

The difference between Melbourne last year and Melbourne this year is testamount to his abilities as a coach and we could really use an experienced head at Windy Hill right now.

Bullshit. Melbourne finished 14th last year, they were 2-11 when Daniher pulled the plug, and...wait for it...they got belted by 8 goals by last year's wooden spooners. They then proceeded to clean out the following players off their list over the off season:
- Simon Godfrey
- Nathan Brown
- Byron Pickett
- Clint Bizzell
- Travis Johnstone
- Daniel Ward

Without looking, i reckon they cleaned out well over 500 games' experience in one off season. Melbourne of 2007 v Melbourne of 2008 has nothing to do with the fact that Bailey is a dud or Daniher is a genius. Their list is atrociously shit and very thin right now - substantially worse than ours, even.

[chummy]

How long did Moses wander,forty years,we have some serious problems at ESSENDON . At the moment we do not have one player that would make Geelogs best 22,our best three players are all closer to the end of their careers than we all thought ten weeks ago.Our next tier of players the 23 to 27 year olds is all but none existent (Mcveigh,Mcphee,Hille,Welsh). The next tier the 50 odd gamers Watson,Stanton,Dyson,Lovett,LovettMurry,etc i doubt any of them will ever see finals action at Essendon some will be traded some will be retired,we have wasted 6 years or two Sheedy contracts making decision that were based totally around what was good for Sheedy not the Essendon football club.

The Knights appointment is a bad one ,when a coach tells you that he is not going to talk about the defensive side of the game because he does not want to confuse you ,you are in big trouble you can not play football without defence,it must be very confusing FOR THE PLAYERS ,having watched them play i can never remember an Essendon team that looked more confused.there are three states of the game, they have the football,you have the football,or the ball is in dispute. You can not just ignore one facet of the game AND GET AWAY WITH IT, Knights thinks he is reinventing the wheel,he is a fool and anyone wants to believe his spin is a fool as well.

The next group of players that will represent a truly competitive Essendon football team one that can think grand finals are in the 21 and under group Ryder,Gumbleton,Jetta,Hislop,Houli,etc when these guys are in the 150 game plus bracket 27+ years old we will be competitive again as long as we make the right decisions over the next two or three seasons.
,
Knights should be moved on as soon as possible lets not teach these young guys to many more bad habits it is already proving detrimental to a lot of their careers and to deprogram them will not be easy.I think Daniher is the right choice we need someone who will focus on the basics and teach, what is going to be an even younger and more inexperianced list the fundamentals of playing football.I think 6+ seasons is the reality if we get it right ,if not , did i mention Moses at the begining.
,

[bomberdonnie]

How long did Moses wander,forty years,we have some serious problems at ESSENDON . At the moment we do not have one player that would make Geelogs best 22,our best three players are all closer to the end of their careers than we all thought ten weeks ago.Our next tier of players the 23 to 27 year olds is all but none existent (Mcveigh,Mcphee,Hille,Welsh). The next tier the 50 odd gamers Watson,Stanton,Dyson,Lovett,LovettMurry,etc i doubt any of them will ever see finals action at Essendon some will be traded some will be retired,we have wasted 6 years or two Sheedy contracts making decision that were based totally around what was good for Sheedy not the Essendon football club.

The Knights appointment is a bad one ,when a coach tells you that he is not going to talk about the defensive side of the game because he does not want to confuse you ,you are in big trouble you can not play football without defence,it must be very confusing FOR THE PLAYERS ,having watched them play i can never remember an Essendon team that looked more confused.there are three states of the game, they have the football,you have the football,or the ball is in dispute. You can not just ignore one facet of the game AND GET AWAY WITH IT, Knights thinks he is reinventing the wheel,he is a fool and anyone wants to believe his spin is a fool as well.

The next group of players that will represent a truly competitive Essendon football team one that can think grand finals are in the 21 and under group Ryder,Gumbleton,Jetta,Hislop,Houli,etc when these guys are in the 150 game plus bracket 27+ years old we will be competitive again as long as we make the right decisions over the next two or three seasons.
,
Knights should be moved on as soon as possible lets not teach these young guys to many more bad habits it is already proving detrimental to a lot of their careers and to deprogram them will not be easy.I think Daniher is the right choice we need someone who will focus on the basics and teach, what is going to be an even younger and more inexperianced list the fundamentals of playing football.I think 6+ seasons is the reality if we get it right ,if not , did i mention Moses at the begining.
,

I only bothered reading the first two sentences and seriosuly some people dribble shit on here...

You dont think that Lloyd, Lucas or Davey would slot nicely into their rubbish forward line?

No room for McVeigh?

How about Fletcher?

Hille might just get a game in their ruck even when Ottens comes back in.

Reckon a confident Ryder might get a look too

I dont mind people being shitty and angry but at least try and keep it reasonably sensible