Analysis: The Run Home

merc_2 · Post by **merc_2** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:50 pm

Our form interstate in the past couple of years has been amongst the worst in the league. Yeah we beat Adelaide and Sydney, but our most recent was an appalling effort against Port. Im not convinced we are good travellers yet.

robrulz5 · Post by **robrulz5** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 8:30 pm

We have a fair chance. Some good players to come back into an improving side will give us a good shot.

The next two weeks will define our season, if we win both we could end up winning 5 in a row going into playing West Coast in Perth.

bombers_rock · Post by **bombers_rock** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:52 pm

In the past few weeks I've been looking at our run home, patterns, opposition performance, etc.

But this week, for some reason, I can't look any further ahead than this weekend. The Hawks soundly beat us last time, seemingly with ease, and could very easily do it again if we're not on our game.

I have to say I'm concerned where, normally, I'm optimistic. Not sure what to make of it. I can't remember the last time I was concerned about a game. Even the Geelong game I wasn't.

Sismis · Post by **Sismis** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:11 am

Rossoneri wrote:
Sismis wrote:Adelaide will win 3. Wont make it - I reckon two
Bulldogs 1 or 2. WOnt make it
Sydney will win 2 WOnt make it - I reckon they will win 3, probably will make it
Saints could win 1-4 a possibility - Reckon they will win three
We will win 2-4 a possibility - I reckon 3
Brisbane no "sure wins" 0-4 a possibility - Agree. Their games at the GABBA are against the wrong teams for them.

12 win will get you in the 8.
I reckon we may just miss out.
I think Sydney and the saints will get in.

Wouldnt it be a delight if Carlton win this week. Not only will it hurt Collingwood, but they will also lose the priority pick. Should we win, we would go above them (or just behind on percentage)

It could so easily go either way. How much i our loss to the scum hurting us now.

There is no way carlton will give up their pick.

merc_2 · Post by **merc_2** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:07 am

Totally agree, our Round 3 loss to Carlton is going to bike us in the ass!

F111 · Post by **F111** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 3:34 pm

Rossoneri wrote: Wouldnt it be a delight if Carlton win this week. Not only will it hurt Collingwood, but they will also lose the priority pick. Should we win, we would go above them (or just behind on percentage)

The delimma for evey EFC fan...who to support

Go blooos. Ratten for coach.

andrewb · Post by **andrewb** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 4:27 pm

I'm not sure if someone has mentioned it before, but the round 22 match between melbourne and carlton will be the biggest press story of the year. All things remaining equal, the two sides are going to hit round 22 with three and four wins respectively.

If Melbourne wins, they will drop from pick #2 to pick #4 - Carlton will get pick #1 and probably #3 because of percentage. If Carlton wins, they will lose a pick (#1) and probably be relegated to pick #4.

Carlton need Kruezer because they're in a terrible state in the ruck, hence they will be very reluctant to win. Melbourne, on the other hand, will be very reluctant to drop two spots in what's considered a fairly weak draft.

It's an absolute nightmare for the AFL and will hopefully result in a much needed change to the system. I expect tough words to be heard from AFL HQ in the lead up to the match and a pitiful, error ridden match.

Madden · Post by **Madden** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 5:21 pm

andrewb wrote:If Melbourne wins, they will drop from pick #2 to pick #4 - Carlton will get pick #1 and probably #3 because of percentage. If Carlton wins, they will lose a pick (#1) and probably be relegated to pick #4.

Not only that, but they also would directly lose another priority pick which they are scheduled to receive at the start of the second round.

So if Melbourne lose, they would get picks #3, #17 and #18. If they won, they would get picks #4 and #17. I know which one I'd rather.

Its headed for absolute disaster...

billyduckworth · Post by **billyduckworth** » Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:23 pm

So is the best result a draw?
(I don't understand enough about the draft system to know the answer to that myself, but probably someone here on BT does).