Bombertalk

I dont think thats a prob Tom. i love your blogs and value your input. Stats can be deciving to and ofetn its the 1 percenters that dont show up on the stats sheet that count for lots. I reckon NLM has his share of 1 percenters to

tom9779 wrote:

Sirvass36 wrote:Well said Sismis

NLM 6th in tackles, 6th in marks, and 8th in disposals this year and thats missing 2 games.
Compare this to Paddy Ryder who has played every game NLM has had 63 more disposals, 7 more marks, and kicked 4 more goals. I know Paddy can pick up stronger opponents but even so, those stats dont lie.
His closing speed is great and he is very strong in the air. He is very adaptable and ahs also gone forward and kicked a goal on average every second game. hes strong, fast, reads the play well and IMO is extremely under-rated. He can and has played on bigger and stronger opponents like Goodes and done pretty well.
Very under-rated quality player

I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

Watch NLM this week. One stat that is woefully underreported is spoils. See how many he gets.

tom9779 wrote:

Sirvass36 wrote:Well said Sismis

NLM 6th in tackles, 6th in marks, and 8th in disposals this year and thats missing 2 games.
Compare this to Paddy Ryder who has played every game NLM has had 63 more disposals, 7 more marks, and kicked 4 more goals. I know Paddy can pick up stronger opponents but even so, those stats dont lie.
His closing speed is great and he is very strong in the air. He is very adaptable and ahs also gone forward and kicked a goal on average every second game. hes strong, fast, reads the play well and IMO is extremely under-rated. He can and has played on bigger and stronger opponents like Goodes and done pretty well.
Very under-rated quality player

I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

Hmmm. I must say I throughly approve of this new, feisty version of Tom. This place has become far too friendly with Essendon winning. Bring back Kepler, for f@#ks sake.

gringo wrote:

tom9779 wrote:

Sirvass36 wrote:Well said Sismis

NLM 6th in tackles, 6th in marks, and 8th in disposals this year and thats missing 2 games.
Compare this to Paddy Ryder who has played every game NLM has had 63 more disposals, 7 more marks, and kicked 4 more goals. I know Paddy can pick up stronger opponents but even so, those stats dont lie.
His closing speed is great and he is very strong in the air. He is very adaptable and ahs also gone forward and kicked a goal on average every second game. hes strong, fast, reads the play well and IMO is extremely under-rated. He can and has played on bigger and stronger opponents like Goodes and done pretty well.
Very under-rated quality player

I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

Hmmm. I must say I throughly approve of this new, feisty version of Tom. This place has become far too friendly with Essendon winning. Bring back Kepler, for f@#ks sake.

You've become the mellowest of them all Gringo

Sismis wrote:

jimmyc1985 wrote:Tom, McPhee makes some awful clangers from time to time, but he's had a good year.

I agree with you on NLM though. He seems to go fine when we're doing well, but when the team is down, he's rubbish. Realistically, unless he improves his own game, i'd hope he wouldn't be in our best 22 by 2010.

That is out and out crap. How many times has he let us down in a defensive role? once. He was beaten against Richmond but defenders ALL have those days, it is a fact of the role. His stats for that game? 21 touches five marks and 3 tackles.

I'd suggest you watch NLM play and see the defensive work he does. He consistantly holds his man, AND supports the general defence by getting to loose players to spoil. He does it five or six times a game. Often it looks quite bad when you see him not get to a contest, but next time you see that, have a look at whose man he attempting to spoil. 9 times out of 10 it wont be his, by the sheer virtue of his speed he gets to a lot of contests, a role he seemlingy gets no recognition for.

Every week he gets the no 3 defensive role, be it tall or small. With a greater defensive role, he STILL manages to contribute more for the team than Slatts or Nash who get a lot more love.

NLM is a very good defender

Interesting. I think the last time you referred to something i said as "absolute crap" was my suggestion last year that we trade Lovett, because i said he's too lazy and too undisciplined.

tom9779 wrote:I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

I tend to do both, Tom. So i've watched NLM and made up my own mind and agree with you, and i also know that this year, he's ranked 8th in our side for average errors, 4th for average free kicks against, and contrary to above opinions, he's only ranked 12th for average 1%ers (well behind our better defenders like Fletcher, Ryder and Slattery, who are ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in average 1%ers for the EFC).

I guess NLM's 1% efforts are just better than all the others .

jimmyc1985 wrote:Interesting. I think the last time you referred to something i said as "absolute crap" was my suggestion last year that we trade Lovett, because i said he's too lazy and too undisciplined.

And it is still crap. Lovett is far too important to the team. He has his faults but this year he has consistantly turmed on the class when required. He also tailor made for our brand of football. Talk of trading him is insanity.

jimmyc1985 wrote:

tom9779 wrote:I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

I tend to do both, Tom. So i've watched NLM and made up my own mind and agree with you, and i also know that this year, he's ranked 8th in our side for average errors, 4th for average free kicks against, and contrary to above opinions, he's only ranked 12th for average 1%ers (well behind our better defenders like Fletcher, Ryder and Slattery, who are ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in average 1%ers for the EFC).

I guess NLM's 1% efforts are just better than all the others .

Where do you get your stats from? AFL website has NLM = with Slatts on 35 for 1%. 3rd on frees against after McPhee 1st and SLATTERY 2nd....
NLMs effective disposal is ranked 10th 4% ,behind slattery (who is 4th). He make more errors but he also gets a lot more ofthe ball with 80 more touches! both have played 15 games.

http://www.bombersfc.com.au/Statistics/ ... fault.aspx

BTW i'm not knocking Slattery I think he is a very good defender, who can also take a midfield role. I just think NLM cops a very raw deal in here.

B: Slattery Fletcher NLM
HB: McPhee Ryder Houli
C: Reimers Watson Welsh
HF: Davey Lloyd Monfries
F: Jetta Lucas Neagle
R: Hille McVeigh Stanton
I: Lovett Laycock Nash Myers

E: Gumbleton Ramanauskas Winderlich

No place for: Dempsey, Atkinson, Hislop, Hocking, Daniher, (young and need to find form with Bendigo) or Peverill, Michael, JJ (better younger options).

EDIT: Argh! Realised I have no Sammy Lonergan! OK, Myers into the Emergencies, Sammy on the bench.

Sismis wrote:

jimmyc1985 wrote:

tom9779 wrote:I don't read stats, I just watch footy games. maybe thats my problem.

I tend to do both, Tom. So i've watched NLM and made up my own mind and agree with you, and i also know that this year, he's ranked 8th in our side for average errors, 4th for average free kicks against, and contrary to above opinions, he's only ranked 12th for average 1%ers (well behind our better defenders like Fletcher, Ryder and Slattery, who are ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in average 1%ers for the EFC).

I guess NLM's 1% efforts are just better than all the others .

Where do you get your stats from? AFL website has NLM = with Slatts on 35 for 1%. 3rd on frees against after McPhee 1st and SLATTERY 2nd....
NLMs effective disposal is ranked 10th 4% ,behind slattery (who is 4th). He make more errors but he also gets a lot more ofthe ball with 80 more touches! both have played 15 games.

http://www.bombersfc.com.au/Statistics/ ... fault.aspx

BTW i'm not knocking Slattery I think he is a very good defender, who can also take a midfield role. I just think NLM cops a very raw deal in here.

I'm talking averages; a much fairer measure. I got them from here:

http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/tea ... gs?tid=105

Not interested in possessions; i was talking about errors, 1%ers, and free kicks against.

Sismis wrote:

jimmyc1985 wrote:Interesting. I think the last time you referred to something i said as "absolute crap" was my suggestion last year that we trade Lovett, because i said he's too lazy and too undisciplined.

And it is still crap. Lovett is far too important to the team. He has his faults but this year he has consistantly turmed on the class when required. He also tailor made for our brand of football. Talk of trading him is insanity.

You have what is called "confirmation bias" in financial theory; once you fall in love with something, you find it almost impossible to let go. Easier to do in relation to footy players than shares admittedly, but still leads to incorrect decisions being made.

B: Slattery Fletcher NLM
HB:Lovett Ryder Houli
C: Dempsey Watson Welsh
HF: Reimers McPhee Lloyd
F: Lucas Neagle Davey
R: Hille McVeigh Stanton
I: Monfries Laycock Myers Jetta

4 of the back 6 are pretty much standard. I like Houli, he works hard has pace, is creative and has good skills, he and Fletcher being the go to guys to deliver the ball by hand and foot out of the back. I also like Lovett down back. With his pace, he should have room to run, not be cramped up forward. he is a great runner of the ball but as for chaing down apponants and providing defensive pressure up forward leave that job to Davey.

The only probable surprise in my Centre is Dempsey, I rate him, IMO he will be our No1 Midfielder when he gets fit. has unbelievable burst pace, strong, good at contested ball and a nice kick.

Reimers at HF rotating through the midfield, McPhee has been excellent at CHF this season (despite what some people think) I like the setup we have with Lloyd pushing up, McPhee the CHF who can also cover allot of ground and provide a contest in the air and on ground level.

Lucus and Lloyd obviousely rotate, looking to the Future we want neagle, how is a strong boy and looks the goods at full foreward. I think its needless to say, Davey belongs in the pocket and can go a match without a posession and still be a vaulable assett to the team with his defensive pressure.

Rucks are standard, and the interchange with Laycock for hill, Jetta and monfries who can play forward or midfield and Myers as defence or midfield rotation.

I'd like to see Daniher spend some time at full back by the end of next season, with Gumby at CHB and Ryder spending more time in the ruck where I think he will stamp himself as one of the great rucks in 5 years time.

Chris wrote:B: Slattery Fletcher NLM
HB:Lovett Ryder Houli
C: Dempsey Watson Welsh
HF: Reimers McPhee Lloyd
F: Lucas Neagle Davey
R: Hille McVeigh Stanton
I: Monfries Laycock Myers Jetta

Some interesting selections, but I think that a best 22 should be based on what players have done, not on what they might do at some stage in the future.

Stanton is and always will be a far better midfielder than Dempsey. I can't think of an Essendon midfielder since Jobe's dad who has performed as consistently as Stanton at this age.
Monfries is far better a player than Reimers or Neagle.
Nash is currently a better and more consistent player than Dempsey or Myers.
Also, remember that blond pacy wingman with great skills? Or have we all forgotten about Winder's 2007 because he's been injured this year?

jimmyc1985 wrote:

Sismis wrote:

jimmyc1985 wrote: I tend to do both, Tom. So i've watched NLM and made up my own mind and agree with you, and i also know that this year, he's ranked 8th in our side for average errors, 4th for average free kicks against, and contrary to above opinions, he's only ranked 12th for average 1%ers (well behind our better defenders like Fletcher, Ryder and Slattery, who are ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in average 1%ers for the EFC).

I guess NLM's 1% efforts are just better than all the others .

Where do you get your stats from? AFL website has NLM = with Slatts on 35 for 1%. 3rd on frees against after McPhee 1st and SLATTERY 2nd....
NLMs effective disposal is ranked 10th 4% ,behind slattery (who is 4th). He make more errors but he also gets a lot more ofthe ball with 80 more touches! both have played 15 games.

http://www.bombersfc.com.au/Statistics/ ... fault.aspx

BTW i'm not knocking Slattery I think he is a very good defender, who can also take a midfield role. I just think NLM cops a very raw deal in here.

I'm talking averages; a much fairer measure. I got them from here:

http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/tea ... gs?tid=105

Not interested in possessions; i was talking about errors, 1%ers, and free kicks against.

Sismis wrote:

jimmyc1985 wrote:Interesting. I think the last time you referred to something i said as "absolute crap" was my suggestion last year that we trade Lovett, because i said he's too lazy and too undisciplined.

And it is still crap. Lovett is far too important to the team. He has his faults but this year he has consistantly turmed on the class when required. He also tailor made for our brand of football. Talk of trading him is insanity.

You have what is called "confirmation bias" in financial theory; once you fall in love with something, you find it almost impossible to let go. Easier to do in relation to footy players than shares admittedly, but still leads to incorrect decisions being made.

Totals are equivalent to averages if they have played the same ammount of games, pretty sure that is the same in financial theory......

By your stats Slatts is equal with NLM on Frees against.

Going by your stats, Slatts is less than 1, 1% above NLM.

Errors he is less than 1 away from Slatts, I know you don't care about any stats that go against your theory, but if you get more touches even at a higher error rate, doesn't that mean you can (and in NLMs case he does) have MORE effective possesions a game? Isn't this better?

Keeping to the stats YOU think are important. By your reckoning, Slatts is less than one 1% and 1 error with the same frees against and one is a good defender and the other you hope wont be in our best 22?

Can't fault your other anology though, I am unashamedly biased and prone to inexhaustable benefit of the doubt. Particularly in relation to the number 13 it would appear.

BTW that is an awesome stats site.

Sismis wrote:Keeping to the stats YOU think are important. By your reckoning, Slatts is less than one 1% and 1 error with the same frees against and one is a good defender and the other you hope wont be in our best 22?

Can't fault your other anology though, I am unashamedly biased and prone to inexhaustable benefit of the doubt. Particularly in relation to the number 13 it would appear.

Where have i ever said Slatts is a good defender? Never have; in fact i authored a thread about two months ago in which i was obviously annoyed with him because he kept giving away clumsy free kicks (something he has improved on a lot over the last 8 weeks). I just think he's a better defender then NLM. If i wanted to stop an opposition forward kicking goals, i'd put Slatts on him every time before NLM.

Re: me not wanting NLM in our best 22 by 2010, again, re-read what i originally wrote; i specifically stated that i don't want him in our best 22 by then if he doesn't improve. I see NLM as one of only 2 middle-aged guys on our list who hasn't appreciably improved in the last 3 years, the other one being Lovett. All the other guys in the same age bracket including Welsh, McPhee, Hille and McVeigh have. NLM would be a good 25th-28th player in a top 4 team, and i want us to be a top 4 team (or at least close to a top 4 team) in 2010, hence i can't see him in our best 22 by then if he doesn't improve.

Royza's Full list squad:

B: Slattery Fletcher NLM
HB: McPhee Ryder Houli
C: Reimers Watson Lovett
HF: Davey Lloyd Monfries
F: Jetta Lucas Welsh
R: Hille McVeigh Stanton
I: Laycock, Nash, Winderlich, Lonergan

E: Rama, Neagle, Pev

With McVeigh's form before injury & Welsh's current form, I decided to go with McVeigh starting on the ball, & then swap with Welsh. Didn't want to swap them off the bench unless necessary, & didn't want to chuck one of them on the wing.

The rest is the standard set up. I've got Winders as a wing replacement, & Nash as a utility type. The emergencies are quite capable replacements in their respective roles.

Although for development purposes I think I'd have the younger guys(Lonergan, etc..) getting a gig for games like the Dees, etc..

Royza wrote:Royza's Full list squad:

B: Slattery Fletcher NLM
HB: McPhee Ryder Houli
C: Reimers Watson Lovett
HF: Davey Lloyd Monfries
F: Jetta Lucas Welsh
R: Hille McVeigh Stanton
I: Laycock, Nash, Winderlich

E: Rama, Neagle, Pev

With McVeigh's form before injury & Welsh's current form, I decided to go with McVeigh starting on the ball, & then swap with Welsh. Didn't want to swap them off the bench unless necessary, & didn't want to chuck one of them on the wing.

The rest is the standard set up. I've got Winders as a wing replacement, & Nash as a utility type. The emergencies are quite capable replacements in their respective roles.

Although for development purposes I think I'd have the younger guys(Lonergan, etc..) getting a gig for games like the Dees, etc..

Short a player on the bench? Lonergan maybe?

Brill! Always good to have another player to choose. Lonergan gets the gig!

I'm finding it interesting that everyone is saying that Lloyd should be CHF and Lucas FF after half a dozen games... Do we think this is a permanent move for Lloyd or is Knights just waiting for Lucas to get his engine back?

andrewb wrote:I'm finding it interesting that everyone is saying that Lloyd should be CHF and Lucas FF after half a dozen games... Do we think this is a permanent move for Lloyd or is Knights just waiting for Lucas to get his engine back?

Lloyd will never just be a FF ever again. Lucas will also roam around. The plan is to get guys like Gumby and Neagle time at the key posts.