Late Round Draft Success Stories

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Windy_Hill
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Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:37 pm

A lot of Buzz surrounding The Mozz. Has ever a player taken so late in the draft generated so much hype? I can only wish the lad all the very best but in reality, the expectation surrounding his drafting may end up being a millstone. He probably has a slightly better chance of success than past draftees taken in and around his number of selection (38) given the ever improving scouting techniques employed by modern football clubs.

Let’s take a look at out draft history in the later rounds - for this exercise I am starting at 36 and going up in brackets of 5.

This table shows the player drafted and the number of Senior AFL games they played at Essendon (does not include games at other AFL clubs). This list goes back to 2006 only

36-40 Mosquito (0) D Daniher (6). A Davey (100). J Neagle (28)

41-45 Mutch (3). Houli (26).

46-50 Houlahan (0). Brown A (11). Remixers (60). Lonrgan (79)

51-55 Brown M (39). Fantasia (60). Van Unenrolled (1). Gleeson (69). Still (0). Hooker (175)

56-60 Gown (0). O’Brien (14)

61-65 Clarke (1). Eades (0). Dalgliesh (0). Davis (0)

66-70 Zerk-Thatcher (0). Hartley (41). Slattery T (1) Lucy (0)

71-75 Ham (0). Kommer (22). Crameri* (34)

76-80 Guelfi (15). Ross (2)

81-85. N/A

86-90. N/A

106. Baguely (124). Howlett (109). Both promoted form rookie list. * Crameri also promoted from Rookie list


So in reality, the stats are actually not too bad and a late round draftee has a reasonable chance of success. If we remove draftees from the last 2 years plus senior age players with previous AFL experience (eg Mitch Brown) along with rookie promotees then we have a total of 20 players who have combined to play 663 senior AFL games at Essendon or an average of 33.15 games each.

However if you remove the two top players in terms of games, Hooker and Alwyn Davey the average drops to 21 games per draftee. Still not too bad and probably above the average number of games played across the AFL over the years.

In terms of late round draftees who actually played more than 21 games from our sample, there are a total of 8 from 20 or 40%

So in summary, Mozzie looks like an inspired selection but in reality the odds are still stacked against him being a 100 game player (about 10%).

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BenDoolan
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by BenDoolan » Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am

Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am

BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by boncer34 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:10 am

Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Not quite Windy.

Hird played rep football at 17 against the VFA, we certainly didn't hide him away. The reality is that scouting back in that day wasn't that crash hot, football programs in NSW/ACT were non-existent and he had a serious injury (hip I think) that turned recruiters off him. From memory it was only Sheedy's relationship with his grandfather that got him drafted and even then I think the match committee voted to delist him at the end of his first season.
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Windy_Hill
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:06 pm

boncer34 wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:10 am
Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Not quite Windy.

Hird played rep football at 17 against the VFA, we certainly didn't hide him away. The reality is that scouting back in that day wasn't that crash hot, football programs in NSW/ACT were non-existent and he had a serious injury (hip I think) that turned recruiters off him. From memory it was only Sheedy's relationship with his grandfather that got him drafted and even then I think the match committee voted to delist him at the end of his first season.
C’mon Bonce....my memory ain’t what it used to be but we definitely kept Hird under wraps....even with his injury issue. There is no way Hird “slid to 79” in the order without some sleight of hand

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by s'dreams » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:31 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:06 pm
boncer34 wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:10 am
Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Not quite Windy.

Hird played rep football at 17 against the VFA, we certainly didn't hide him away. The reality is that scouting back in that day wasn't that crash hot, football programs in NSW/ACT were non-existent and he had a serious injury (hip I think) that turned recruiters off him. From memory it was only Sheedy's relationship with his grandfather that got him drafted and even then I think the match committee voted to delist him at the end of his first season.
C’mon Bonce....my memory ain’t what it used to be but we definitely kept Hird under wraps....even with his injury issue. There is no way Hird “slid to 79” in the order without some sleight of hand
In my memory, he actually wasn't rated. He did face delisting early too when he didn't play a game in 91 and the committee voted 4-2 to delist, but were convinced by Sheeds to keep him on as a project player.
dices ad adepto futui (tell them to f*** off)

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Rover99 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:11 am

He went to school and used to play tennis with my son at Hawker College ACT (years 11 and 12) and also attend the Australian Institute of sport at Belconnen (where he had a scholarship) Marcus once asked him what he was going to do after school. He said "My grand dad has a stadium named after him in Melbourne. I'm going to play AFL with Essendon." He went to Ainslie primary school in the ACT too, because when I visited there a few years ago, hanging up on the wall to my delight was a framed, signed jersey of every member of the 2000 team - gift from James Hird. Headmistress showed me and was proud as punch :D

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Rover99 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:15 am

To clarify my previous post - I guess James had a scholarship to the AIS in his senior school years and did the academic bit at Hawker College. Was in my son's class.

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:19 pm

Rover99 wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:15 am
To clarify my previous post - I guess James had a scholarship to the AIS in his senior school years and did the academic bit at Hawker College. Was in my son's class.
So I have heard this story too and so it’s great to have it verified by someone who had a direct link to Hirdy at the time. Something fishy was going on as he was always going to land at Essendon...from your post, he also knew that. Yes there was the father, grandfather connection but that was not the same as a Father/Son recruit per se.

By the way, the story about the board wanting to delist him after one year sounds like fake news. He was injured most of that first year so how could they passs judgement on him not to mention the deep family connections to the club would have made it somewhat awkward to throw the kid out before he has fired a shot in anger. And since when doe the board vote on player contracts, even in 1991/92. He would have been on a 2 year contract as well.

Sounds like a Wikipedia source.

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by BenDoolan » Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:15 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Hird, by his own admission, wasn’t much of a player back then. His grandpa contacted Brian Donohue to have a look at him play and tried to convince the club to recruit him. The club didn’t hide him away at all. He just wasn’t on the radar for any club. So, pick 79 was what it was, and the rest is glorious history.
Unfortunately, you can't drown a witch!

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:00 pm

BenDoolan wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:15 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Hird, by his own admission, wasn’t much of a player back then. His grandpa contacted Brian Donohue to have a look at him play and tried to convince the club to recruit him. The club didn’t hide him away at all. He just wasn’t on the radar for any club. So, pick 79 was what it was, and the rest is glorious history.
well there you have it.....gotta admit its hard to understand how he didnt show any glimpses of what would ultimately be a sublime talent. You see, the things Hirdy was special at were skills you cant teach...reading the play, being in the right place at the right time, always taking the best first option. Iwould have thought these attributes would have been picked up early. Obviously athletic talent can be developed over time (eg Jobe Watson) but what Hird had was natural

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Rover99 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:06 pm

Windy_Hill wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:19 pm
Rover99 wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:15 am
To clarify my previous post - I guess James had a scholarship to the AIS in his senior school years and did the academic bit at Hawker College. Was in my son's class.
So I have heard this story too and so it’s great to have it verified by someone who had a direct link to Hirdy at the time. Something fishy was going on as he was always going to land at Essendon...from your post, he also knew that. Yes there was the father, grandfather connection but that was not the same as a Father/Son recruit per se.

By the way, the story about the board wanting to delist him after one year sounds like fake news. He was injured most of that first year so how could they passs judgement on him not to mention the deep family connections to the club would have made it somewhat awkward to throw the kid out before he has fired a shot in anger. And since when doe the board vote on player contracts, even in 1991/92. He would have been on a 2 year contract as well.

Sounds like a Wikipedia source.
Well I guess his grandaddy (who was President of Essendon at one stage) and daddy (essendon player) drummed it into him. :D :D

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by boncer34 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:03 am

Windy_Hill wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:00 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:15 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Hird, by his own admission, wasn’t much of a player back then. His grandpa contacted Brian Donohue to have a look at him play and tried to convince the club to recruit him. The club didn’t hide him away at all. He just wasn’t on the radar for any club. So, pick 79 was what it was, and the rest is glorious history.
well there you have it.....gotta admit its hard to understand how he didnt show any glimpses of what would ultimately be a sublime talent. You see, the things Hirdy was special at were skills you cant teach...reading the play, being in the right place at the right time, always taking the best first option. Iwould have thought these attributes would have been picked up early. Obviously athletic talent can be developed over time (eg Jobe Watson) but what Hird had was natural
Mate you have to remember recruiting then wasn't what it is today. How many scouts do you think went to Canberra to recruit?
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:16 pm

boncer34 wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:03 am
Windy_Hill wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:00 pm
BenDoolan wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:15 pm
Windy_Hill wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:28 am
BenDoolan wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:38 am
Wasn’t Hird pick 79? And Hardwick pick 87? Two rippers there.
Yes, but they predate this sample. Not to mention that Hird under today's drafting rules and advances would have been a top 10 pick. Essendon effectively hid him away in Canberra at a time when the current Under 18 competition was not in existence. Hardwick was definitely a bargainas well and again, a player that may not slip so deep into the draft with today's better scouting regime
Hird, by his own admission, wasn’t much of a player back then. His grandpa contacted Brian Donohue to have a look at him play and tried to convince the club to recruit him. The club didn’t hide him away at all. He just wasn’t on the radar for any club. So, pick 79 was what it was, and the rest is glorious history.
well there you have it.....gotta admit its hard to understand how he didnt show any glimpses of what would ultimately be a sublime talent. You see, the things Hirdy was special at were skills you cant teach...reading the play, being in the right place at the right time, always taking the best first option. Iwould have thought these attributes would have been picked up early. Obviously athletic talent can be developed over time (eg Jobe Watson) but what Hird had was natural
Mate you have to remember recruiting then wasn't what it is today. How many scouts do you think went to Canberra to recruit?

Come on Bonce, would have been an overnight road trip, Alec Epis, Ken Fraser and some blokes from the Social Club, a slab of VBs and some Cold Chisel Cassettes. Roll into Manuka around 10am the next day, pull the car up nose first to the boundary fence and take in the U/16 Ainslie v. Manangatook Old Boys. Take a few notes on a clipboard with pad, probably wrap that up around the 8 min mark of the 1st Qtr before leaving early to avoid the traffic. Note to Sheeds from Canberra Scouting Trip; Hird looks alright.

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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by boncer34 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:42 am

Distance is irrelevant. Reality is unless the player was an absolute superstar junior, and Hird wasn't, clubs didnt look at players from NSW/ACT or Queensland.

And why would they? Weak leagues with f*** all development pathways.

Kinda makes you wonder how many stars never got noticed from up North.
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by s'dreams » Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:03 am

Windy_Hill wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:19 pm
Rover99 wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:15 am
To clarify my previous post - I guess James had a scholarship to the AIS in his senior school years and did the academic bit at Hawker College. Was in my son's class.
So I have heard this story too and so it’s great to have it verified by someone who had a direct link to Hirdy at the time. Something fishy was going on as he was always going to land at Essendon...from your post, he also knew that. Yes there was the father, grandfather connection but that was not the same as a Father/Son recruit per se.

By the way, the story about the board wanting to delist him after one year sounds like fake news. He was injured most of that first year so how could they passs judgement on him not to mention the deep family connections to the club would have made it somewhat awkward to throw the kid out before he has fired a shot in anger. And since when doe the board vote on player contracts, even in 1991/92. He would have been on a 2 year contract as well.

Sounds like a Wikipedia source.
Source was the great man himself (or his Ghostwriter) ... Hird, James (2002) Challenging Times. Geoff Slattery Publications/ Lothian Books, Melbourne.
dices ad adepto futui (tell them to f*** off)

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Windy_Hill
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Re: Late Round Draft Success Stories

Post by Windy_Hill » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 pm

s'dreams wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:03 am
Windy_Hill wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:19 pm
Rover99 wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:15 am
To clarify my previous post - I guess James had a scholarship to the AIS in his senior school years and did the academic bit at Hawker College. Was in my son's class.
So I have heard this story too and so it’s great to have it verified by someone who had a direct link to Hirdy at the time. Something fishy was going on as he was always going to land at Essendon...from your post, he also knew that. Yes there was the father, grandfather connection but that was not the same as a Father/Son recruit per se.

By the way, the story about the board wanting to delist him after one year sounds like fake news. He was injured most of that first year so how could they passs judgement on him not to mention the deep family connections to the club would have made it somewhat awkward to throw the kid out before he has fired a shot in anger. And since when doe the board vote on player contracts, even in 1991/92. He would have been on a 2 year contract as well.

Sounds like a Wikipedia source.
Source was the great man himself (or his Ghostwriter) ... Hird, James (2002) Challenging Times. Geoff Slattery Publications/ Lothian Books, Melbourne.
Bloody lying ghostwriters..... :wink:

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