I do have a love-hate feeling for sport stats. I love stats because quantitative data enhances the understanding of the game (surely) and once enjoyment (maybe); I hate stats because stats are easily misleading and can flatly be misused. My focus in this post is to consider how well the performance of a football player can be assessed with a single number derived from statistics. This is not new, the AFL does compute ranking point on its website. In the US -traditionally very focused on stats -one success formula has been the quarterback rating in the NFL and Baseball is all about stats....
So from simplest to most complex we have:
1/ Conventional Wisdom (of average journos)
Player rating = Possies = Kick + Handball
Works mostly for midfielders....
2/ Wizards of Windy Hill (EFC Website)
Players are awarded points based on the following points scoring system
Kick - 1 point
Handball - 1 point
Mark - 1 point
Goal - 4 points
Tackle - 2 points
Free against - minus 1 point
Weakness: all possessions are rated equal from a long kick inside 50 resulting in a goal to a clanger/turnover.
3/Coca-Cola Zero AFL Dream Team
Kick - 3 Points
Handball - 2 Points
Mark - 3 Points
Tackle - 4 Points
Free Kick For - 1 Point
Free Kick Against - minus 3 Points
Hitout - 1 Point
Goal - 6 Points
Behind - 1 Point
Basically the same as wizards with a slightly different weighting (+ hitouts). It relies on all stats that are widely available.
4/ Sportal AFLPA Dream Team
Kick - 3 Points
Handball - 1 Point
Contested Possession - 4 Points
Uncontested Possession - 2 Points
Tackle - 3 Points
Hitout - 1 Point
Clanger - minus 5 Points
Goal - 6 Points
Behind - 1 Point
# A contested possession is any possession won in dispute (this includes contested mark, hardball-get, looseball-get, free kick for).
# An uncontested possession is any possession gained from a team mate (uncontested mark, handball-receive).
# Clangers include any blatant unforced error including free kick against, 50m penalty against, dropped marks.
This seems better in so far that it includes bonus for contested possessions and takes points away for clangers.
Caveat it relies on stats that are not widely available.
5/ Herald Sun Supercoach
Effective kick 4 Points
Ineffective kick 0 Points
Clanger kick -8 Points
Handball effective 2 Points
Ineffective handball 0 Points
Handball clanger -6 Points
Handball receive 1 Point
Hardball get 4 Points
Loose-ball get 4 Points
Goal 8 Points
Behind 1 Point
Mark uncontested (maintaining possession) 1 Point
Mark contested (maintaining possession) 6 Points
Mark uncontested (from opposition) 4 Points
Mark contested (from opposition) 8 Points
Tackles 4 Points
Free kick for 4 Points
Free kick against -6 Points
Hitout to Advantage 3 Points
This goes much deeper in allocating points based on the actions likely impact on the game. The stats are not widely available and are contracted by the Herald Sun from Champion Data.
Note that the table above is only a simplification. as stated " The main ways for your starting 22 to earn points for your SuperCoach team are: " which means there are other ways (as explained below).
6/ AFL website ranking (Available on gameday only in real time and only as Flash) (not Coca-Cola AFL Dream)
Seems to be also from Champion data. The principle looks the same as descibed in the Herald sun but I noticed that 1% ters (spoil, smother, shepherd), errors , ... also contribute to the real time scores. The stats and cumulative ranking don't seem available to the general public, but the numbers may be identical to "Supercoach".
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In conclusion, I believe the more complex stats are more useful in ranking players. Unfortunately they rely on stats that are not widely available and this is contributing to the continuing fallacy of rating the player by possies even though this makes no sense in the "modern game" with so many meaningless uncontested possessions.
As an experiment I picked a couple players almost at random (Fletcher and McVeigh) and I looked at their cumulative ranking for the first 12 games of the year.
1- Possies: Fletcher 2nd, McVeigh 7th (Watson 1st)
2- Wizards of Windy Hill: Fletcher 4th, McVeigh 6th (Lucas 1st)
3- AFL Dream: Fletcher 2nd, McVeigh 6th (Hird 1st)
4 - Sportal AFLPA Dream: Fletcher 7th, McVeigh 4th (Hird 1st)
5- Heraldsun Supercoach/ Champion data: Fletcher 1st, McVeigh 2nd
Obviously Fletcher is having a good year. Actually based on Supercoach current ranking Fletcher is #2 in the comp (Spike is 19th).
http://heraldsun7.virtualsports.com.au/ ... s&round=12
Football stats - damn lies or hidden wisdom
Football stats - damn lies or hidden wisdom
Red and Black Forever
Good summation.
Though I think most now realise that possessions on face value mean nothing. Hell, Sam Fisher had 30 touches against Hawthorn. 10 years ago, if a defender got 30 touches, he was a defender.
The supercoach ones as you say go into a lot more depth, but whether that is required to the average Joe Blow who reads the paper is debatable.
Me, I like to see contested and uncontested possessions and marks. Inside 50, rebound 50 and efficiency of disposal.
I like the Herald Sun stats, though the could throw in rebound from 50's, and hit outs to advantage.
Though I think most now realise that possessions on face value mean nothing. Hell, Sam Fisher had 30 touches against Hawthorn. 10 years ago, if a defender got 30 touches, he was a defender.
The supercoach ones as you say go into a lot more depth, but whether that is required to the average Joe Blow who reads the paper is debatable.
Me, I like to see contested and uncontested possessions and marks. Inside 50, rebound 50 and efficiency of disposal.
I like the Herald Sun stats, though the could throw in rebound from 50's, and hit outs to advantage.