Ladder Predictor

[boncer34]

Did a ladder prediction here: http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

Was fairly open and honest with it, losses to the Bulldogs, Cats, Freo and West Coast for the Bombers. Be interested to see others ladders.

Code: Select all

1 Geelong  22  15   7   0  2358  1874  60  125.8  
7 W Bulldogs  22  15   7   0  2277  2168  60  105.0  
3 West Coast  22  14   8   0  2191  1821  56  120.3  
11 Fremantle  22  13   9   0  2252  2091  52  107.6  
6 Essendon  22  13   9   0  2247  2116  52  106.1  
2 Hawthorn  22  12  10   0  2127  1975  48  107.6  
4 Collingwood  22  12  10   0  2126  2037  48  104.3  
10 Sydney  22  12  10   0  1989  1914  48  103.9  
 
8 Port Adel  22  12  10   0  2103  2154  48   97.6  
12 St Kilda  22  12  10   0  1949  1996  48   97.6  
5 Adelaide  22  11  11   0  1971  1903  44  103.5  
9 Kangaroos  22  10  12   0  2053  2185  40   93.9  
13 Bris Lions  22   9  12   1  1948  2086  38   93.3  
15 Melbourne  22   7  15   0  1922  2261  28   85.0  
14 Carlton  22   5  17   0  2160  2603  20   82.9  
16 Richmond  22   3  18   1  1954  2443  14   79.9  

[jimmyc1985]

Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2441 1791 76 136.2
2 Hawthorn 22 17 5 0 2228 1874 68 118.8
3 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2165 1847 64 117.2
4 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2185 1978 64 110.4
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2282 2163 56 105.5
5 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2042 1832 52 111.4
8 Port Adel 22 12 10 0 2127 2130 48 99.8
10 Sydney 22 11 11 0 1999 1904 44 104.9

11 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2202 2141 40 102.8
9 Kangaroos 22 9 13 0 2083 2155 36 96.6
12 St Kilda 22 8 14 0 1901 2044 32 93.0
13 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1946 2088 30 93.1
15 Melbourne 22 7 15 0 1985 2198 28 90.3
6 Essendon 22 7 15 0 1701 2662 28 63.8
14 Carlton 22 6 16 0 2268 2495 24 90.9
16 Richmond 22 3 18 1 2072 2325 14 89.1

I understand that some may see my predictions as slightly pessimistic, however i do usually err on the side of caution. I believe there is some upside for us in my prediction.

[KaaN10]

4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2085 2078 60 100.3
1 Geelong 22 14 8 0 2311 1921 56 120.3
5 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 1995 1879 52 106.1
2 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 2104 1998 48 105.3
3 West Coast 22 12 10 0 2047 1965 48 104.1
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2223 2222 48 100.0
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2154 2209 48 97.5
16 Richmond 22 11 10 1 2539 1858 46 136.6
8 Port Adel 22 11 11 0 2074 2183 44 95.0
9 Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2048 2190 44 93.5
10 Sydney 22 10 12 0 1946 1957 40 99.4
11 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2155 2188 40 98.4
13 Bris Lions 22 9 12 1 1958 2076 38 94.3
12 St Kilda 22 9 13 0 1823 2122 36 85.9
14 Carlton 22 8 14 0 2233 2530 32 88.2
15 Melbourne 22 6 16 0 1932 2251 24 85.8



Richmond can still make the 8 if they win by 100+ each game and all home game teams win.

[bombers_rock]

I've got us 4th. Losses to Geelong, West Coast, Fremantle
6th with a loss to Hawthorn (but surely we wont lose twice)

Carlton and Melbourne are really must wins.
Collingwood is to some extent too. I think we're pretty equal with the filth at the moment, but we probably need to beat them, and as far as a finals position goes, it gives us at least 1 up on them.

[bomberdonnie]

Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2441 1791 76 136.2
2 Hawthorn 22 17 5 0 2228 1874 68 118.8
3 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2165 1847 64 117.2
4 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2185 1978 64 110.4
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2282 2163 56 105.5
5 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2042 1832 52 111.4
8 Port Adel 22 12 10 0 2127 2130 48 99.8
10 Sydney 22 11 11 0 1999 1904 44 104.9

11 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2202 2141 40 102.8
9 Kangaroos 22 9 13 0 2083 2155 36 96.6
12 St Kilda 22 8 14 0 1901 2044 32 93.0
13 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1946 2088 30 93.1
15 Melbourne 22 7 15 0 1985 2198 28 90.3
6 Essendon 22 7 15 0 1701 2662 28 63.8
14 Carlton 22 6 16 0 2268 2495 24 90.9
16 Richmond 22 3 18 1 2072 2325 14 89.1

I understand that some may see my predictions as slightly pessimistic, however i do usually err on the side of caution. I believe there is some upside for us in my prediction.

You are a shit stirrer jim!!

[Gyoza]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2452 1780 68 137.7
3 West Coast 22 17 5 0 2225 1787 68 124.5
2 Hawthorn 22 15 7 0 2193 1909 60 114.8
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2156 2007 60 107.4
5 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 2049 1825 56 112.2
6 Essendon 22 14 8 0 2263 2100 56 107.7
10 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2063 1840 52 112.1
7 W Bulldogs 22 11 11 0 2211 2234 44 98.9

8 Port Adel 22 11 11 0 2097 2160 44 97.0
9 Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2071 2167 44 95.5
11 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2181 2162 40 100.8
13 Bris Lions 22 9 12 1 1958 2076 38 94.3
12 St Kilda 22 9 13 0 1895 2050 36 92.4
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2111 2652 20 79.6
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1834 2349 12 78.0
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1868 2529 6 73.8

[gottalovett]

i think that 14 wins is an achievable total

[swoodley]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2492 1740 76 143.2
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2267 1835 64 123.5
3 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2198 1814 64 121.1
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2202 1961 60 112.2
5 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 2031 1843 56 110.2
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2277 2168 56 105.0
10 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2029 1874 48 108.2
6 Essendon 22 12 10 0 2195 2168 48 101.2

8 Port Adel 22 12 10 0 2117 2140 48 98.9
9 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2071 2167 48 95.5
11 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2131 2212 36 96.3
12 St Kilda 22 9 13 0 1901 2044 36 93.0
13 Bris Lions 22 6 15 1 1866 2168 26 86.0
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2131 2632 20 80.9
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1832 2351 12 77.9
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1887 2510 6 75.1

[Ramanama]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 22 16 6 0 2433 1755 64 138.6
2 Hawthorn 22 16 6 0 2219 1865 64 118.9
3 West Coast 22 15 7 0 2169 1812 60 119.7
4 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2158 1987 56 108.6
9 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2247 2194 52 102.4
5 Essendon 22 13 9 0 2227 2184 52 101.9
7 Kangaroos 22 13 9 0 2127 2107 52 100.9
10 Sydney 22 11 11 0 1981 1878 44 105.4

8 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1966 1877 44 104.7
6 Port Adel 22 11 11 0 2106 2168 44 97.1
11 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2231 2181 40 102.2
12 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 1909 2053 40 92.9
13 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1908 2143 30 89.0
15 Melbourne 22 6 16 0 1946 2285 24 85.1
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2132 2700 20 78.9
16 Richmond 22 4 17 1 1922 2492 18 77.1


That actually looks about right.

[ZRS]

well,

sad to say, but playing around with this it is going to be very tough to make the 8 with how shit our percentage is.

we really need to win the next couple of games by a big margin.

im coming down for the pies game, hopfully i'll be a good omen and we can thump them by 100 points

[robrulz5]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2443 1705 76 143.2
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2135 1923 64 111.0
2 Hawthorn 22 15 7 0 2151 1871 60 114.9
8 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2064 1807 56 114.2
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2299 2217 56 103.6
3 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2107 2070 56 101.7
9 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 1978 1760 52 112.3
4 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2064 1887 52 109.3

5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2236 2099 52 106.5
10 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2168 2288 40 94.7
11 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 1883 2010 40 93.6
13 Fremantle 22 8 14 0 2140 2182 32 98.0
12 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1929 2085 30 92.5
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1916 2348 16 81.6
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2139 2780 16 76.9
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1891 2511 6 75.3

[KaaN10]

1 Geelong 22 17 5 0 2426 1722 68 140.8
4 West Coast 22 16 6 0 2084 1867 64 111.6
6 Collingwood 22 16 6 0 2099 1959 64 107.1
5 Port Adel 22 15 7 0 2282 2053 60 111.1
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2127 1895 56 112.2
7 W Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 2257 2259 52 99.9
8 Sydney 22 12 10 0 2050 1821 48 112.5
9 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1954 1784 48 109.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2089 2088 48 100.0
12 Bris Lions 22 10 11 1 2014 2000 42 100.6
10 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2186 2270 40 96.2
11 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 1889 2004 40 94.2
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2170 2152 36 100.8
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1916 2348 16 81.6
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2126 2793 16 76.1
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1874 2528 6 74.1

[andrewb]

1 Geelong 22 19 3 0 2379 1769 76 134.4
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2115 1907 56 110.9
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2030 1921 56 105.6
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2069 1989 56 104.0
7 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2281 2235 56 102.0
8 Sydney 22 13 9 0 2028 1843 52 110.0
9 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 1954 1784 52 109.5
5 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2208 2127 52 103.8

10 Essendon 22 13 9 0 2216 2240 52 98.9
3 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2089 2088 48 100.0
11 St Kilda 22 11 11 0 1895 1998 44 94.8
12 Bris Lions 22 9 12 1 1977 2037 38 97.0
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2152 2170 28 99.1
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1952 2312 16 84.4
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2215 2704 16 81.9
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1983 2419 6 81.9

The ladder's so close this year it's ridiculous. You could conceivably miss the finals with 13 wins (as above).

[MH_Bomber]

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2447 1701 72 143.8
8 Sydney 22 15 7 0 2138 1733 60 123.3
3 Kangaroos 22 15 7 0 2147 2030 60 105.7
5 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2300 2035 56 113.0
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2131 1891 56 112.6
4 West Coast 22 13 9 0 2052 1899 52 108.0
10 Essendon 22 13 9 0 2297 2159 52 106.3
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2083 1975 52 105.4

11 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 1969 1924 52 102.3
9 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1972 1766 48 111.6
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2259 2257 48 100.0
12 Bris Lions 22 7 14 1 1873 2141 30 87.4
13 Fremantle 22 7 15 0 2082 2240 28 92.9
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1850 2414 16 76.6
14 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2107 2812 16 74.9
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1836 2566 6 71.5

The highest I get us is 7th !!! Does this mean we'd have to play West Coast over there ? We dont want that FFS. I tried making Footscray beat the coasters in R17 and we then finish 6th and play Collingwood - the horror the horror !!!!

Best case scenario with teams around us losing and us winning every game we finish .... wait for it ...2nd with 15 wins !!!! With an 8 like this WE CAN WIN THE FLAG. Its nice to dream.

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2435 1713 72 142.1
10 Essendon 22 15 7 0 2333 2123 60 109.8
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2137 1885 56 113.3
7 W Bulldogs 22 12 10 0 2259 2257 48 100.0
3 Kangaroos 22 12 10 0 2083 2094 48 99.4
12 Bris Lions 22 11 10 1 1945 2069 46 94.0
8 Sydney 22 11 11 0 2052 1819 44 112.8
9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1954 1784 44 109.5

5 Port Adel 22 10 12 0 2203 2132 40 103.3
6 Collingwood 22 10 12 0 2031 2027 40 100.1
4 West Coast 22 10 12 0 1970 1981 40 99.4
11 St Kilda 22 10 12 0 1901 1992 40 95.4
15 Melbourne 22 10 12 0 1988 2276 40 87.3
13 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2130 2192 36 97.1
14 Carlton 22 7 15 0 2159 2760 28 78.2
16 Richmond 22 5 16 1 1963 2439 22 80.4

[bombers_rock]

Us finishing 2nd??? I think not! We can dream though.
West Coast and the Filth not making the finals? I think not too. We can dream about this also.

[F111]

I think WC will struggle. They'll need to turn it all around soon to improve their finals chances. Their chances are better than ours I expect.

We'll also struggle, borderline 8-11th from here. % is crap and will be the difference.

[2QIK4U]

Rohan Connolly did a ladder predictor in the Age today

http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/07/ ... 16984.html

He had us finish 11th and WCE 7th.

[Jazz_84]

realistically he has us winning and loosing the games we should. but we have won games and lost games we shouldn't have all year so who knows....... will have to wait and see

i can't see Collingwood winning every remaining game either

[KaaN10]

Rohan Connolly did a ladder predictor in the Age today

http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/07/ ... 16984.html

He had us finish 11th and WCE 7th.

Fair.

[Essendon4eva]

That will be the ladder if the favourites win every week.