Bombertalk

...we will lose this week, win our next 4, and finish off season 2007 with a couple of losses.

I just had a look to see if there's any pattern(s) in our 'form' this year.

W W L W L L L W W W W L W L L - - - - - - -

Which means, of our remaining matches:

L - Collingwood (possible)
W - Adelaide (probable)
W - Hawthorn (unlikely, but who knows)
W - Fremantle (possible, at least we don't get them straight up after the coach quitting/being sacked)
W - Carlton (you'd think we'll win, but definitely not a given)
L - Richmond (you'd think it's unlikely, but who knows)
L - West Coast (likely, unless their wheels really have fallen off)

However, there are some differences for our remaining matches...

In the three losses in round 5 to 7 - the first two were at the MCG, the 3rd one was at Phone Dome. From rounds 14 to 16 - the first two were at Phone Dome, the third is at the MCG. Maybe that difference works in our favour? Definitely in our favour is that it's been a long time since Collingwood beat us twice in a season. (Just had a look - 1997 they beat us twice). Also, see further down, this season vs last season.

We've won at Phone Dome after every game at the MCG, except for Round 7 (Kangaroos) so I think we've got a pretty good chance of winning that one.

Of the four games we won from round 8 to 11 it went in this pattern:
Home (Interstate Team)
Away (Victorian Team)
Away (Interstate Team)
Home (Victorian Team)

Of the four games, in theory, we'll win the pattern is the same, however, the venues of the third match (replace the SCG with Subiaco) and fourth match (MCG instead of Phone Dome) are different.

If it all goes as above, we'll finish on with 12 wins and might just scrape into the finals. Either way, it would be an awesome achievement to finish with 12 wins after only three last season and 3 wins from our 5 road trips and would certainly set 2008 up to be an exciting prospect.

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More on the filth....

Interesting stats:
ANZAC Day, 2002 - they beat us by 33 points (that must've been the one where it was close until it started raining and it became a slop fest?)
Round 20, 2002 - we beat them by 55 points
ANZAC Day, 2003 - we thumped them by 11 goals.
Round 22, 2003 - they only rolled us by 16 points.

Yep, that's the Filth's "golden" years, or is that golden years for filth haters?

Moving on...

In 2004 we beat them twice.
In 2005 we beat them twice.
In 2006 they beat us by 17 points on ANZAC Day, we won by 13 points in the rematch (even though it was our most pathetic season in a long, long time).
In 2007 they beat us by 16 points on ANZAC Day.

Will it be that we, on the improve in 2007, beat them by 12 points in the rematch?

We've had some big(ish) wins against them, but we seem to be able to hold them to pretty modest winning margins - exception being ANZAC Day 2002.

Aren't stats the most marvellous things.


Oh yes, and if you can't tell - I AM bored.

haha all pointless but i like it, good stuff

Thanks. I was bored at work.
On 1 project I'm on, there's 4 of us sitting there doing next to nothing because there's just no work from the client.
On the other project I'm working on, the work has dried up too.
Good thing I'm only working there as part of my degree and finish up next week Only 5 more days to "waste".

Anyhoo..... back to the footy and hypotheticals...

I hope it comes to fruition. Except for a loss to 16thmond. I don't think I could handle that. I'd swap the Hawthorn and 16thmond games without a second thought. I could handle losing to Hawthorn (they've been playing well this season), but losing to 16thmond would be unbearable.

I don't think win loss patterns really mean anything but nice post. Hopefully it works out that way though if I had a choice I'd rather beat the flith this week and drop one to Freo.

In theory communism works.

bombers_rock wrote:...we will lose this week, win our next 4, and finish off season 2007 with a couple of losses.

1 down.....

W - Adelaide (probable)
W - Hawthorn (unlikely, but who knows)
W - Fremantle (possible, at least we don't get them straight up after the coach quitting/being sacked)
W - Carlton (you'd think we'll win, but definitely not a given)
L - Richmond (you'd think it's unlikely, but who knows)
L - West Coast (likely, unless their wheels really have fallen off)

....6 to go.

Hmm. Thats 2/2...

Well going on the trends, we're living up to expectations so far.

Hopefully we beat Hawthorn... and break the trend by beating Richmond.

j-mac wrote:In theory communism works.

Damn you for getting in first!!

KaaN10 wrote:Hmm. Thats 2/2...

In the words of one Monty Burns.... "Excellent".

Now let's hope next week goes as the script is written and damn those Hawks to the demons if they ruin said script.

Thought I'd drag this one up again....

When I first posted this, after Round 15, the story went something like this:

W W L W L L L W W W W L W L L - - - - - - -

After Round 20, it looks like this:

W W L W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L W - -

My initial theory went out the door when we lost to Hawthorn and then Fremantle. But I looked again and there was another pattern emerging - going the opposite of where we'd already been. This would have meant we would've lost to Carlton, won against Richmond and lost to West Coast.

I guess patterns mean nothing as rob said. Worked for a couple of weeks, twisted around it could've worked another way, but it went yesterday. Oh well, I thought it was an interesting concept.