Our Drafting: Shit or Not?

[Madden]

I claim no credit for this post, all credit goes to ashisb over at BB, with an outstanding analysis of our recent recruiting. Its well worth a read, and I tend to agree. We all rubbish the recuriting of Bradley, Bolton, Davies etc but maybe it isn't as bad as we all think?

I do get a bit annoyed when people make blanket statements along the lines that Essendon have been terrible at drafting, without actually bothering to have a look at the drafts and see what the other teams were doing and who was actually available when we made our selections.

Of course there are always some "in hindsight" errors - the most glaring was probably in 2000 when we took Davies at 17, when Kerr was taken at 18, Coughlan at 25 and Charman at 29. But it should also be considered that Carlton deemed it worthwhile to draft Livingston, Sporn and Wiggins before those players, Adelaide picked up Angwin, West Coast McDougall and the Bulldogs picked up McMahon. None of those guys scream "first round pick" to me. Also consider that this was a draft where teams believed it was worthwhile drafting the likes of delisted players Rocca, Pike in the 2nd round and Wakelin in the 3rd round.

Or try 2001, when we went with Shane Harvey at 18. For a super draft, there were a fair few super-duds in the first round - Ashley Sampi, Luke Molan, Sam Power, Richard Cole, Ashley Watson, Barry Brooks all went before Harvey, and none of whom we would be proud to have on our list today. Even Jason Gram, who was taken immediately after Harvey, did nothing at Brisbane. And who's Daniel Elstone (20), Aaron Rogers (26), Tom Davidson (27), Mark Powell (28), Rod Crowe (30) or Jarrod Wright (35)?

2002 is probably more to our liking, when we picked up Laycock and Winderlich in the first round, but I suppose only just now beginning to see the fruit. Spare a though for the Bulldogs who took Tim Walsh at 4 or the Hawks who took Luke Brennan at 7. What about Jay Schulz, Daniel Bell, Nicholas Smith or Stephen Gilham - have they done what a first round pick should have achieved? Even Brennan, Jarrod McVeigh and Salopek are questionable in that sense.

Any further forward than that is probably unfair to players who are still developing (I'll look at them briefly later), but if we go back to 1999, when Essendon had no first or second round pick, do the players Fiora, Cupido, Danny Roach, Caydn Beetham, Koulouriotis, Travis Gaspar, David Spriggs or David Haynes jump to mind as quality first round selections? Or consider that 5 2nd round picks are no longer on AFL lists (and that's probably a good result, compared with most years).

In 1998, we saw such high calibre first round picks as Ryan Fitzgerald, Murray Vance, Brandon Hill and Chris Lamb. This was a year when 1, 2 and 3 were Headland, Longmuir and Fosdike. Essendon's contribution to the first round was Mark McVeigh and Adam Ramanauskas. Surely a big win for Essendon.

In 1997 we drafted Bolton at 4. No need to comment too much on that, but while a couple of quality players followed (Luke Power, Tarrant and Chad Cornes the obvious ones). There were a number of mediocre players (Massie, Walker, O'Bree, Saddington) who surely would have added no more than Bolton to our team and some outright duds (Jaxon Crabb, Callum Chambers, Shannon Watt, Joel Mckay, Ben Wolton) who were all taken in the first round.

In 1996 We took Chris Heffernan at 2. Another disaster I hear people cry! But consider the rest of the first round - Hilton, Kinnear, Rombotis, Lockwood, Brockman, Harwood, Brent Grgic, Heath Black, Gilligan, O'Farrell, Hudghon, Pat Steinfort. OK, I've deliberately left out 2 players - Nathan Brown (the original) was taken at 10 and Daniel McAllister was taken at 5. But given the utter wasteland that most of this draft was, Heffernan, a premiership player, seems a master stroke, and McAllister seems like a reasonable gamble.

I think I've gone back far enough to illustrate my point. In '96, '98 and '02 we did better than the norm in the first round. In '99 we were barred from the draft and in '00 and '01 we did worse than the norm, but even then we weren't on our own by any means. Dare I say it, Bolton's selection in '97 was not a bad result given some of the others that were taken highly.

In '03 we took Bradley (but as most of us will remember, the media and the punters all agreed in the lead up, it was either Bradley or Tenace - no one else was considered worthy of the no. 6 slot.) This wasn't a "punt", but rather the fulfilment of expectation. Also consider that 7, 8, 9 and 10 were Tenace, Raph Clarke, Trotter and Dunn - not exactly world beaters in themselves. Also remember that '03 also resulted in Brent Stanton from the first round - and he can hold his head up with all of the top 5 picks.

In '04 we took Angus Monfries at 14. Let's have a look at 15-20 - Lynden Dunn, Adam Pattison, Andrew McQualter, Cameron Wood, Ryan Willits, and Dean Polo. Polo is the only one I see with a potentially brighter future than Monfries, and even then it's borderline. Going further than that, only Matt Rosa (29) among non F/S selections has clearly better performances on the board. Monfries was a great result for Essendon among those available.

In '05 we took Ryder at 7, and he already looks the better of all but perhaps Murphy, Pendlebury and maybe Thomas ahead of him. No one selected behind him looks a patch on his ability.

In '06 we took Gumbleton and Jetta. Time will tell.

I know that's just the first round picks, but as I said, it annoys me when people cast aspersions on how we've drafted without really looking into it. Sure, we've made mistakes, but so has every team, and I venture to guess that, despite our current situation, we've made less than most, especially in the first round.

I can hear the comments, "well, it's not so much the first round ... it's the 2nd and 3rd where we've got it wrong". I'd argue that beyond the first round, the draft becomes more and more of a lottery and any wins beyond about pick 20 should be celebrated and the losses written off. Perhaps I will have a look at these picks in detail in the future.

Thoughts?

[Essendon4eva]

I called in SEN and made this point. Its one thing to draft RAW talent, its another to devlop that talent. Look at our list now. Who have been our best players? Hird, Fletcher, Lucas and Lloyd. Where were they all drafted?

Look at our young kids coming through and tell me they all suck. Its just that alot of people are impatient and think its going to happen over night. Laycock, Lovett, Lovet-Murray, Nash, Stanton, Winderlich, Slattery and Watson. Thats a few off the top of my head, who have been playing very good football.

Its pretty easy to see talent early on in the draft, but its how you draft later on. And SHeed's has shown to draft well and devlop those players well.

[dom_105]

In 1998, we saw such high calibre first round picks as Ryan Fitzgerald

Bit harsh on Fitzy I would have thought

[Rossoneri]

NOt sure where your getting at with Lloyd, Lucas Fletcher and Hird?
Hird - late pick
Fletcher - F/S
Lloyd and lucas, both top 5.

Yes our recruiting does suck, as does other clubs. You get some good ones, and you get some dud ones. I think its more the re-drafting that has people up in arms as well..

I still think that our recruiting has been poor, but in recent years, it has definitely improved.

While its a good post, he didnt mention all of the players who are picked after the duds (Walsh, Harvey, Henneman, Bradley, McAlister, Stevenson, etc)

[hillchaser]

I agree with the sentiments of this post. Looking from the other side of the coin I do have one objection and that is our clear lack of NAB rising star votes.. over the last 5 years .. I would like to see some analysis of rising star nominations.

I guarantee that teams like Port and Brisbane .. who have never had really high draft picks have an unproportionally high amount.. and you notice this on field with their talent..

Would love to see the numbers run on this.

[Essendon4eva]

Lucas was pick 4 in the 1994 draft.
Lloyd wasn't even picked in the proper draft. He was a compensation pick in 1995.
Hird was draft at number 72 in 1990.

If you put two and two together. The entire point of my post was to say you can draft all the talent you want, but if you don't develop them it wont mean jack.
Pick 72 and a compensation pick have been our last two captains.

I'm sick of hearing this bullshit about poor drafting. Since 1986 when the draft was first implemented, we have won two flags and been runners up twice. Also been in two prelims. So with a 'poor' draft history, what does that say about Sheeds? You can fill in the blanks.

[robbie67]

The drafting years 1997 to 2002 is what is killing us now, no question. No matter either way, whether they were bad choices or poor drafts, these players are at their peak right now, and we have none of them. Almost every other club in the comp has a player in their top3 who were drated in that period, and we have none. When you dont get great picks all the time because your club is their abouts, you cannot afford to make any mistakes when you do get topline choices. Bolton, McAlister, Davies, Harvey, Bradley........we have made plenty.

Like Rosso said though, things have gotten better. They had to, because if it wasnt for some very astute rookie selections, we would be worse than ordinary.

[gringo]

Lucas was pick 4 in the 1994 draft.
Lloyd wasn't even picked in the proper draft. He was a compensation pick in 1995.
Hird was draft at number 72 in 1990.

If you put two and two together. The entire point of my post was to say you can draft all the talent you want, but if you don't develop them it wont mean jack.
Pick 72 and a compensation pick have been our last two captains.

I'm sick of hearing this bullshit about poor drafting. Since 1986 when the draft was first implemented, we have won two flags and been runners up twice. Also been in two prelims. So with a 'poor' draft history, what does that say about Sheeds? You can fill in the blanks.

Can you fill them in for me? I'm confused...

[Essendon4eva]

If our young players we have drafted are that bad, well Sheeds has done pretty good as a coach to keep us competitive. If the talent we have brought inot the club has been so bad since 1997, yet we have only spent two years out of the eight, he must be a pretty damn good coach.

[Mrs Mercuri]

our drafting early on may not have been the best but i think the club has done better in recent years considering how far up the ladder we have finished (last year excluded of course). Getting AlWyn Davey and Bachar Houli so late is going to be a big bonus for us thats for sure.

[Windy_Hill]

I wouldnt write off Bradley quite yet

[Rossoneri]

I wouldnt write off Bradley quite yet

If he continues to play in defence then I will.

Must play up forward, has good hands and his kicking has improved. I reckon he might be one person who is glad Sheedy is gone. Perhaps the new coach can play him in a position where he has had success at VFL level?

[bombers_rock]

I've never said our recruiting has been crap/shit/etc. and I've been unsure what to think. Some think we've done alright, some think we've done badly. That post by ashisb certainly puts it all in perspective. We do have some talented kids coming through - some that aren't really getting their chance but have a bright future given a chance.

Sort of seems like a bit of "watch this space".

[andrewb]

1999, 2000, 2001.

That's where we f***** up, and that's why we don't have many good 25 odd year olds on the list.

2002 on we've been a lot better.