Early Election Prediction

Talk here about anything that isn't covered by the other boards....

Who will win the next federal election?

Labor
20
65%
Coalition
11
35%
 
Total votes: 31

bombercol
Regular Senior Player
Posts: 2376
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:35 pm
Location: Canberra

Post by bombercol »

I think it will be very very close.

When it was time for change last time (Keating), the ALP was absolutely massacred to the point that at best they needed two strong elections to catch up.

The reason I think it will be close is that yes, the ALP will get a good swing but that "better the devil you know" factor will be a factor.
Essendon4eva
High Draft Pick
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:37 pm

Post by Essendon4eva »

BenDoolan wrote:
Essendon4eva wrote:Whats your problem? If I ahd my guess your voting for the Coalition right? How about you stick to the topic instead of taking cheap shoots to boost your ego over the Internet. Your one of the reason this board was taken away from the officialy Essendon website. Morons like yourself you take pleaasuer in talking tough over the Internet.

I feel sorry for the parents that gave birth to you. They must be discraced.
Give up f***stick. You're making youself look like a totally uneducated, dyslexic idiot with every post.
Your looking like a tpyical gutless internet coward. I mean seriously. So what I type with alot of typos' Does that make me uneducated? I get about 10 minues at a time on the computer and want to get to as many threads as I can. You obviously have plnety of time to just go around the boards and pick on people to make you feel good about yourself.
bombers_rock
High Draft Pick
Posts: 862
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:15 pm
Location: Ballarat

Post by bombers_rock »

Coalition for me. Can't stand Elmer Fudd or Labor for that matter.

My reason for not wanting a Federal Labor Government is simply who's going to "keep the bastards honest"? Labor Governments in every state and territory (correct me if I'm wrong, I plucked that from Wikipedia a little while ago :lol: ) and at Federal level? Scary prospect.
User avatar
BenDoolan
Essendon Legend
Posts: 29822
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:10 pm

Post by BenDoolan »

Essendon4eva wrote:
BenDoolan wrote:
Essendon4eva wrote:Whats your problem? If I ahd my guess your voting for the Coalition right? How about you stick to the topic instead of taking cheap shoots to boost your ego over the Internet. Your one of the reason this board was taken away from the officialy Essendon website. Morons like yourself you take pleaasuer in talking tough over the Internet.

I feel sorry for the parents that gave birth to you. They must be discraced.
Give up f***stick. You're making youself look like a totally uneducated, dyslexic idiot with every post.
Your looking like a tpyical gutless internet coward. I mean seriously. So what I type with alot of typos' Does that make me uneducated? I get about 10 minues at a time on the computer and want to get to as many threads as I can. You obviously have plnety of time to just go around the boards and pick on people to make you feel good about yourself.
=D> Congratulations, you f***** it up again! Did that take you 10 minutes to type?

Now off to bed, little boy.

P.S Meet me at Telstra Dome June 8th v West Coast. Just outside the Cougar Bar. I take it you are challenging me on the "gutless" comment. Well, see you there, tool. I'll be calling out for you.
Essendon4eva
High Draft Pick
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:37 pm

Post by Essendon4eva »

I guess your going alone? I would be pretty embarrased to go out with mates and tell them.

"Wait here guys, I'm waiting for a guy who called me a coward on the Internet, because I followed him around abusing him because he couldn't type well."

Your an audult with 2123 posts on the Internet, abusing posters for typing errors and challenge other users to fights. Do you happen to live in your parents basement?
User avatar
BenDoolan
Essendon Legend
Posts: 29822
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:10 pm

Post by BenDoolan »

Essendon4eva wrote:I guess your going alone? I would be pretty embarrased to go out with mates and tell them.

"Wait here guys, I'm waiting for a guy who called me a coward on the Internet, because I followed him around abusing him because he couldn't type well."

Your an audult with 2123 posts on the Internet, abusing posters for typing errors and challenge other users to fights. Do you happen to live in your parents basement?
I made a comment about your atrocious posting (while others have made comments previously) with a comment that you were either pissed or not concentrating (hardly insulting stuff).

You replied with;
EIther your an arrogant prick or realy Ben Doolan...now...f*** off.
The conversation obviously deteriorated from there. If you can't handle someone telling you that your posts are consistently atrocious, then you have a bigger problem than just your careless typing. It seems as though you need to grow up and accept a bit of criticism, especially when that criticism is warranted (unlike the shit you delivered about Peverill).

Where have I challenged you to a fight?

I said;
P.S Meet me at Telstra Dome June 8th v West Coast. Just outside the Cougar Bar. I take it you are challenging me on the "gutless" comment. Well, see you there, tool. I'll be calling out for you.
I have no problem meeting with you and saying this stuff TO YOUR FACE. That'll prove I'm no "internet coward" as you put it.

You seem to finish your posts off with a smart arse comment. Well, if you're no internet coward, why don't you meet me at Telstra Dome and say that shit to my face.....
Essendon4eva
High Draft Pick
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:37 pm

Post by Essendon4eva »

Ahh I get it know. Your pissed I dislike Peverill's kicking ability, so you follow me here and start to nit pick on typo's. Thought so. Get over it.
Seriously bro. There are more important things than if someone dislikes a football player.
If it bothers you that much, that your willing to harrase posters in other topics then you should spend that Saturday looking at yourself in the mirror.

Now do you actually think I will drive all the way to Telstra Dome jsut to tell you to stop harrasing me on the Internet?

On a side not. This thread has gone off-topic and turned into a little forum war. no Administrator has locked the thread or deleted this posts. Reason why this board is no longer part of the official Essendon website.
I can advertise and knowbody will do shit.
http://www.worldwrestlingrevolution.com
User avatar
Megan
Champion of Essendon
Posts: 12378
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:08 pm
Location: Location Location.

Post by Megan »

BD, essendon4eva, back in your boxes.

A passing joke essendon4eva, no need to take it personally. No one is following anyone anywhere to nit pick anything. Let it go.
Proud member of 'Cult Hird'.
User avatar
BenDoolan
Essendon Legend
Posts: 29822
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:10 pm

Post by BenDoolan »

Essendon4eva wrote:Ahh I get it know. Your pissed I dislike Peverill's kicking ability, so you follow me here and start to nit pick on typo's. Thought so. Get over it.
Seriously bro. There are more important things than if someone dislikes a football player.
If it bothers you that much, that your willing to harrase posters in other topics then you should spend that Saturday looking at yourself in the mirror.

Now do you actually think I will drive all the way to Telstra Dome jsut to tell you to stop harrasing me on the Internet?

On a side not. This thread has gone off-topic and turned into a little forum war. no Administrator has locked the thread or deleted this posts. Reason why this board is no longer part of the official Essendon website.
I can advertise and knowbody will do shit.
http://www.worldwrestlingrevolution.com
You're an internet coward.
User avatar
spikefan
On the Rookie List
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:24 am

Post by spikefan »

Yes the thread has gone off topic.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/ ... 42841.html

Sounds ominous for the Libs, but too early to tell.



Now, back to the controversy. I consider (and I am not alone) that good English and reasonably accurate typing is a form of courtesy, part of the internet etiquette. Maybe this is old fashioned but this makes for a more pleasant read and better communication. SMSTalk is not the way.

So when BD went all the way to add a keyboard picture to his post and asked you if you were pissed, he was sending a friendly and not so subtle message, no reason to blow up with expletives.
Red and Black Forever
User avatar
Megan
Champion of Essendon
Posts: 12378
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:08 pm
Location: Location Location.

Post by Megan »

One more comment on nit picking little squabbles and the thread's being locked.

Leave it on track people. Politics starts enough arguments without adding to it ;)
Proud member of 'Cult Hird'.
Essendon4eva
High Draft Pick
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:37 pm

Post by Essendon4eva »

I don't ype msn style, I just make alot of typos and cannot be bothered going through my entire thread making changes. I'm busy, and its in adn out. A subtle message about typos is something like this,
"Can you please take a bit more care with your typing. The amount of typos make it hard to read your posts"

------------------------------------------------------------

Now, when you go to the voting booth, don't think to what each party has promisesd this year. you need to remember back to teh entire 10 years. Once Howard got control of the house and Senate he scrwed all of us. The only thing he has against his name is a good economy. The economy has grown because of deals put in place by the Labor party to trade with Asia.
User avatar
spikefan
On the Rookie List
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:24 am

Post by spikefan »

Essendon4eva wrote:
Now, when you go to the voting booth, don't think to what each party has promised this year. you need to remember back to the entire 10 years. Once Howard got control of the house and Senate he screwed all of us. The only thing he has against his name is a good economy. The economy has grown because of deals put in place by the Labor party to trade with Asia.
I think a majority of posters would agree with that, I do even though the explosion of the Chinese economy is post Labor (ca. 1998) it is not due to Howard.
Red and Black Forever
User avatar
BERT
Champion of Essendon
Posts: 6413
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:27 am

Post by BERT »

Like the free trade agreement with China. Was that Keating or Howard? Let me think.....
User avatar
spikefan
On the Rookie List
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:24 am

Post by spikefan »

As I said above the true explosion of the Chinese economy is post 1998, so definitely not something Labor can claim credit for, however you have to be a very naive Lib to give credit to Howard for the Chinese economic boom. A completely exogenous factor in my opinion (sorry for the jargon).
Red and Black Forever
Essendon4eva
High Draft Pick
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:37 pm

Post by Essendon4eva »

It was Labor who set up the deal with Asian countries. SO basically it was lucky the Asian market boomed at the time it did. Its a history lesson like this the country need. However there are not enough left-wing Journalists out there who will bring this up.
User avatar
jimmyc1985
Champion of Essendon
Posts: 5869
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:33 pm
Location: Position A

Post by jimmyc1985 »

Bump.

Today, Howard's chances took their biggest pummeling since Rudd took over in my book, for one main reason - interest rates. The CPI figure today was higher than expected and financial futures markets now reckon it's almost certain that interest rates will be lifted either in August or September.

I said early on in this thread that Howard will not win if interest rates increased between then and election day. Well, barring a miracle, interest rates will now be increased before the election.

In my book, today was the official beginning of the end for Howard. He's got no chance if IR's increase.
User avatar
BenDoolan
Essendon Legend
Posts: 29822
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:10 pm

Post by BenDoolan »

jimmyc1985 wrote:
BenDoolan wrote:(1)Too close to call at this stage, but ALP would win if the election was held today. However, things can change just prior to the election. Personally, I think people recognise that Howard is 68 and is likely to be a retiree, especially in his electorate where he may lose his seat.

I believe he has met his first real opponent who will run a very good campaign against him. Gillard may be showing her inexperience, but sitting smuggly behind the PM is Costello - not a noted popular prospective PM.

(2)AWA's just received a "fantastic" popularity boost with Macquarie Bank's boss Allan Moss' extravagant salary - seriously laughable. I'm no longer a blue collar worker, but I believe AWA's are a crock of shit in the main.

(3)I am of the belief that Rudd has a better plan for the futue of our nation than Howard does.
You've raised some interesting points there BD.

Re point (1), I too think most people are at least assuming that Howard, if re-elected, won't see out his full term and will at some stage hand over to Costello. However, Labor vigorously ran that line in their last campaign ('a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello') and it ostensibly did nothing for them. I'd actually be interested to know who people would prefer as PM out of Howard and Costello, and whether Labor will choose to run the same line in this campaign again. If Howard guaranteed that he'd be stepping down and handing over to Costello, that'd be a positive in my view (not saying Costello is great, but he'd be fresher than JH and open to more ideas I think).

Re point (2), I don't see how Moss' salary is of any relevance to the debate about AWA's. His salary was absurdly large (we ain't seen nothing yet though - wait until he gets his retirement payout - it'll be 9 figures) but it'd be absurdly large whether there are or aren't AWA's. And I'm not even sure if he'd be an on AWA - my tentative guess is that he'd be on a common law, individual agreement (which is apparently a separate creature to the AWA).

I agree with point (3).
The recent Costello / Howard tensions aren't helping either. Howard has not committed to serving a full term if he wins the election. He needs to put both issues to bed before the election IMO. I know the ALP have used this issue in past elections, but the reality of Costello becoming PM is more real than ever.
User avatar
Jazz_84
Essendon Legend
Posts: 16234
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:20 pm
Location: Melbourne

Post by Jazz_84 »

i dont know squat about politics lol but i do know Howard will get another 4 years
Kakadu Kangaroos
Captain of the first BomberTalk International Test Squad
BT Soccer World Cup Champion
Captain of the Bombertalk Reds 3rd with 4 wins - 108.30%
(6 games) - 65 kicks, 33 marks, 52 handballs, 4 tackles, 3 Hit Outs, 2 goals
hillchaser
High Draft Pick
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:32 pm
Location: Keysbrough

Post by hillchaser »

I love how the libs take credit for low interest rates ... when the whole global economy had low interest rates.

Now when interest rates are going up Howards saying that they don't control interest rates .. watch him distance himself from the interest rate rises..

Then he says that interest rates will always be lower under a liberal govt .. what crap. as if anyone could prove or disprove that.. Especially since howard says he doesn't deal in hypotheticals.

I like the Ruddster but this think about the Tasmanian forrests is dissapointing.
Post Reply