Staggy wrote:I have a strange feeling that, despite the spin, the Australian economy is in signficantly more trouble than the politicans and banks would have you believe...
Yes, absolutely. There are a number of sick canaries in the mineshaft that i've notice cropping up in the last couple weeks:
- A number of pretty high profile Queensland property developers have gone belly up recently, including another one today. Fire sales of their stock will take place once administrators get going. Look for a Queensland property slump.
- A mid-tier iron ore miner came out today with an announcement that its customers in China have requested that it delay shipment of some of the previously contracted iron ore. Reason? Chinese steel mills have slowed production, inventories of raw materials (the stuff we ship to them) are building up, and they're having some financing difficulties. These Chinese steel mills are already slowing production, and they're currently filling orders that were placed by the US and Europe 3-6 months ago. Europe and US are much, much worse now than they were 6 months ago. Our two biggest exports are coal and iron ore, which are both used intensively in steel production. Look for a slump in export earnings when the contracted price of coal and iron ore comes up for renegotiation over the next 6 months.
- Mate of mine works for Bankwest, which was recently sold by its distressed London parent to Commonwealth at less than book value, which of itself implies Commonwealth are expecting impairments on the loan book. Commonwealth are winding back Bankwest's eastern seaboard operations rapidly. My mate is an agricultural banker, i.e. writes loans to farmers, and they've been told to start calling in quite a few of the loans that were underperforming. Banks are losing patience with tardy borrowers. Look for a steady increase in all sorts of consumer-related credit defaults starting about now.
- Job ads fell to a 7 year low, and the employment market is softening. Look for a steady rise in unemployment.
We'll be hard-pressed to avoid a recession.