Well... despite my crap maths (!) we have got the seven plus wins required. Now for the run home. Assuming we keep our key people on the field:andrewb wrote:We've got the worst run home of any team. Our last 10 games are tough as. If we're not 7-5 or better at the half way mark we're really going to struggle.
Port @ AAMI is going to be TOUGH. 50/50 at best. Don't bank this one because it's very hard to win there and not a lot of teams do. Form counts for very little on the road.
Melbourne looked great today and are coming back into form. That game is 50/50 at best - remember that this is basically the same team that were seriously challenging for top four last year.
I can't wait for the Geelong game but we're probably going to lose.... They look awesome at the moment and they match up very well with us.
Footscray 50/50 at best. We've got better talls, they've got better smalls. Fortunately we've got a good record with Brad Johnson.
Collingwood 50/50 at best.
Adelaide 50/50 depending on what happens with Goodwin's knee. If he's out, I'll back us.
Hawthorn we should win having seen their game plan in action once already this season. I get the feeling that Clarkson is a bit of a one trick pony and I think they will drop off towards the second half of the year.
Fremantle at Subi could be anything but I expect that they will build towards the latter part of the season. Probably a loss.
Carlton should be a win providing we drop someone into Fev's space. Mal's not going to drop his pants twice in a year and he's match fit now.
Richmond should be a win, but anything can happen in three months.
West Coast will be very tough to win.
So... I'm banking on 5 and a half wins at this stage - either 13-9 or 12-10 for the season. Anything better than that and we'll be a genuine premiership contender, anything less than that and we'll be a disappointment. Still, 12 or 13 wins with our draw would be an exceptional result given pre-season expectations.