The Official 2007 Election Thread

[grassy1]

More BRIBES for the FAMILY UNIT.Pity you couldn't do that for them with a 2 HOUSE MAJORITY when you had 2+1/2 years to do it.

Will STEEEVVVEN need a FAMILY IMPACT STATEMENT?PROMISE?

[billyduckworth]

What about "I'm going to vote for Howard cause I saw him down the mall"
be afraid, very afraid these people vote.

This is the root of the problem IMHO - compulsory voting.
It means even the most moronic person who has no interest in or knowledge of politics gets to vote. These sort of people change their mind at the last minute, vote for the party that happened to hand them their how to vote card first, vote for the person with the nicest sounding name etc. Believe me - I did once work as an electoral official and you would be horrified if you sat there all day and watched how people decide.

So, Paul, please be careful spending your hard earned money betting on the election. Obviously, it's up to you, but I wouldn't risk it (I'd rather take my chances in Blackjack or Poker or something where you can at least influence the outcome a little).

[jimmyc1985]

Anyone see the 4 Corners story tonight that followed the opinions of 5 swinging voters in Western Sydney? Bit of an eye-opener.

why and eye opener? what did they say?

Just really hit home the self-centred, me-me-me-me-me-me-me-me attitude of those who the two major parties spend 90% of their time pandering to; the largely fabricated nature of all these "crises" that suddenly bob up around election time; and affirmed my cynicism and almost complete apathy towards this election.

One of the five people swung her vote from Labor to Liberal on the back of a non-existent policy that she's convinced exists (she thinks Rudd is going to divert public money away from private schools ala Latham, but he's publicly stated he will not be doing this). Idiot. Incidentally, these people were also whingeing about how tight things were financially - their daughter went to a private school, they had two cars, a plasma TV and a laptop computer. They were renting and were bewildered as to why they couldn't muster the money to put down a deposit on a home.

Another of the five interviewees was pissed off that Howard broke his promise on interest rates (fair enough), and also complained that they were suffering financial stress - 2 cars, recently re-mortgaged their (substantially portioned) house to add another storey to it. She liked Howard's $34B tax cuts, but didn't like the fact she has to wait the veritable eternity of 9 months before they kick in. She also doesn't understand why, when the economy is booming, interest rates have to go up.

One of the interviewees, a first generation Greek immigrant who'd voted conservative all his life, was definitely switching to Labor due mainly to Workchoices. His two adult kids also don't like Workchoices and were going to vote accordingly, although neither of them were on AWAs, nor knew anyone on an AWA, nor anyone who was worse off since Workchoices came in, nor could identify with any precision what Workchoices does.

One guy struck me as sensible. He was undecided and, even though he wasn't doing too financially well himself, wanted to see more money devoted to infrastructure, education, hospitals and climate change rather than it being all pissed away on meaningless, short-term initiatives as it currently is. He was pretty disillusioned with it all.

These are the people in the marginals that will be deciding the election. 5 people in one electorate is a very concentrated sample, of course, and their opinions probably shouldn't be extrapolated too easily, but if this is what the election is all about (which I think it is), then you'll have to forgive me for not giving a flying fart about it.

The transcript to the story is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/ ... 088749.htm

[Essendon4eva]

Which is why RUdd need to go on teh war path so to speak. He needs to play the Conservative card and scare teh voters. make them feel a war with Iran is on the horizon with the neo-conservative government we have now.

[Sismis]

Just because a party does not get in, that doesn't mean you have wasted your vote. If a candidate receives a certain % of the vote they get their campaign funded.

This is how parties like the greens have survived.

This is how independents like my good self survive.

You are doing a great thing. I really hope to see a lot more independents/greens/democrats get seats. Guys like you are the ONLY hope this country has.

[MH_Bomber]

Paul as much I would like to rely on the good judgement of the bookies in the pricing of the electoral market, for me departing with 10 large is too risky - "when it comes to" the electoral process in Australia. Put it this way if you can afford to lose $10,000 then by all means, but nothing is a guarantee in this world and odds on favourites do get beaten occasionally. It is still possible for the ALP to poll more than 50% on the vote and not win goverment.

To quote big Mal, having said that let me say this. In my opinion all is going well for the ALP. The small target strategy is working to this point. They have said to themselves we will refuse to get wedged by Howard. This has worked for Howard in the past to great effect. Rudd has come over very well. He doesnt get flustered and he seems to have a great deal of personal charisma.

My celebrations regarding Abbott day of shame were premature after Peter Garrett stupidly chose to be jocular with a shock jock.

Howard last gasp for power yesterday was a well targeted grab bag for the aspirational swinging voters.

To me it will go down to the undecided who will make up their mind by ascertaining whether the "Its Time" factor outweighs the "Risky ALP" factor.

With Labor's launch tomorrow I am hoping with have a knock out blow. Something the govt hasnt anticipated that will leave them flummoxed.

Beware any decisions on the Haneef case in the last week. Howard could use this as a wedge.

[Madden]

Which is why RUdd need to go on teh war path so to speak. He needs to play the Conservative card and scare teh voters. make them feel a war with Iran is on the horizon with the neo-conservative government we have now.

................um, no.

[Madden]

Beware any decisions on the Haneef case in the last week. Howard could use this as a wedge.

Very interesting point. Although if he did use it as a wedge he would change the message of his campaign in the last week. It is really amazing that currently we are stuck in Iraq, Afghanistan and in a global war on terror which shows no signs of ending - and there has been zero discussion of foreign affairs or national security. Extraordinary really, and perhaps its an indication of the selfishness of the electorate.

No discussion of foreign aid or debt relief either.

[jimmyc1985]

Just re: Haneef, it's worth noting that another of ASIO's prosecutions fell over yesterday for various reasons, most of them to do with operative incompetence and deliberate flouting of the law. Any attempt by the Liberals to use ASIO's pursuit of Haneef as some sort of political device could be quite easily undermined by a Labor response pointing out that ASIO is clearly not the most competent organisation going round at the moment.

[grassy1]

Has ASIO ever been perceived as a COMPETENT Organisation?

What was that Imfamous Bungled Raid they made about 20 or so years previous?

MAX GILLIES went to town on it in his GILLIES REPORT.

[Madden]

Just re: Haneef, it's worth noting that another of ASIO's prosecutions fell over yesterday for various reasons, most of them to do with operative incompetence and deliberate flouting of the law. Any attempt by the Liberals to use ASIO's pursuit of Haneef as some sort of political device could be quite easily undermined by a Labor response pointing out that ASIO is clearly not the most competent organisation going round at the moment.

Agree, but chance of this happening = zero.

[Paul18]

MH_Bomber, mate you are indeed a wiseman.
great advice.
But if the poles show 55-45 I'm going for it.
That a 10 % lead, take away 1.5 error, take away 3 for marginal seat pork, that it;s leaves 5.5 and that's over the point of the national swing.

If it gets close, with Libs calming they can win with 48%, I keeping in money.
But I've just got this feeling.

[boncer34]

Just because a party does not get in, that doesn't mean you have wasted your vote. If a candidate receives a certain % of the vote they get their campaign funded.

This is how parties like the greens have survived.

This is how independents like my good self survive.

You are doing a great thing. I really hope to see a lot more independents/greens/democrats get seats. Guys like you are the ONLY hope this country has.

Wish I was doing it this time Sismis. Sadly my financial backer pulled out and with the local rag never showing any interest in anything a Ind. has to say I had to pull out early on.

[Madden]

Agree with most of it, but I am so sick of him butting in on every single issue.

Is there anything quite as a sad as a former Australian Prime Minister? Wouldn't have thought so.

The ALP has their policy launch today. And presumably they will respond to Howard's spending spree.... with a slightly different spending spree of their own. Maybe they will show some real leadership and decide to invest in infrastructure instead of just giving money back to everybody... but I wouldn't count on it...

[BenDoolan]

Agree with most of it, but I am so sick of him butting in on every single issue.

Is there anything quite as a sad as a former Australian Prime Minister? Wouldn't have thought so.

I'm also sick of this government referring back to Keating and Hawke's term in office. So in light of their constant references to him, I think it is appropriate that he responds.

[grassy1]

By all means he should.

The tories will say Malcolm should butt out as well,but by now,they've just about DISOWNED HIM.

Plus BILLY BIG EARS and a Decent man in JOHN GORTON.Weren't the Precious ones MUTTERING "TRAITOR" in reference to John in recent Lib Re-union Shindigs?

[Sismis]

Agree with most of it, but I am so sick of him butting in on every single issue.

Is there anything quite as a sad as a former Australian Prime Minister? Wouldn't have thought so.

The ALP has their policy launch today. And presumably they will respond to Howard's spending spree.... with a slightly different spending spree of their own. Maybe they will show some real leadership and decide to invest in infrastructure instead of just giving money back to everybody... but I wouldn't count on it...

Spot on Staggy. We do not need bribes, we need long term thinking and spending.

[grassy1]

He had 2+1/2 Years to come up with this BRIBE and 2 HOUSE MAJORITY.

Asleep at the wheel on that score(and many others).Probably trying to RUSTLE UP a FAMILY IMPACT STATEMENT.As if,....

[Madden]

I listened to the launch in full.

Found it a bit hypocritical that he chose to say things like "reckless spending must stop" and "I choose to heed the warnings of the Reserve Bank" when he is granting $30B in tax cuts....

[MH_Bomber]

Filthy thanks for clarifying my gender.

I watched the Labor Launch in its entirety and was quite impressed with the message.

It was delayed by an what seemed like over an hour with some technical glitch. I reckon it was to do with the positioning of the auto cue because Rudd appeared to be getting his lines from a cue to his diagonal right. I found this somewhat disconcerting from a body language point of view. He would have been better off reading from notes in front of him on the lectern. No doubt some Liberal sabotage at play.

His passion for education does appear to be genuine and will appeal to a wide cross section of the electorate.

10 days to go now. I am really hoping I will have something significant to celebrate come election day.